NFL Betting Picks

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Hi guys, I will share my toughts about the upcoming NFL season games

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This is definitely a public bet, as it seems like the sharps are all on the 49ers to cover this small spread. I just don't see it, similar to the Monday night game with the Giants, when the Lions won outright as a dog. The eye test says that the 49ers are bad and the Rams are on the upswing and that this is mostly a betting line overreaction to Week 2 performances.

The Rams lost by a touchdown to the Redskins at home when Jared Goff threw a pick to kill a potential game-tying drive by the Rams. The Redskins were desperate to win, though, and they were able to maintain a good strategy of churning out yards on the ground before letting Kirk Cousins take over in the fourth quarter. That concerns me a little bit as Carlos Hyde has been a beast for the 49ers, but the Rams should have an easier time containing him as he is literally the 49ers' only offensive option. The Redskins are a very talented offensive team with a host of weapons. The 49ers are not.

The close game against the Seahawks is also a deceiving result for the 49ers. The Seahawks, despite their name recognition, are not going to be good this year. Russell Wilson has regressed and has no protection in the pocket and their rushing game is putrid. The Rams get better protection for Goff, who also has a better arm than Wilson, and they have a way better rushing game with Todd Gurley. I think the Rams will bounce back and be methodical on the ground and through the air, while their defense will force a few turnovers by the 49ers.

betblog.com/picks/435926...o-49ers-los-angeles-rams

My prediction:
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5
Odds: 1.833
Bookie: Pinnacle
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Lost 39 - 41
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Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

This game is between the vikings and the bears a divisional game on monday night football. The bears will be starting a rookie qb making his first ever start vs the very good vikings d is a recipe for disaster in my opinion. The vikings will also be getting their qb back sam bradford. He looked amazing in his first game and albeit he may be rusty i think he will outperform the rookie. The vikings d is better, and they have a better qb so i think this should be a good win for the team .

Minnesota Vikings -3 @1.79 Pinnacle
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Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans

NFL Week 8. Seattle Seahawks are hosting Houston Texans. The odds have dropped down on this spread. The main reason should be DeAndre Hopkins who has missed yesterday practice. There were some issues with the owner comments. Anyways, Seattle has started the season 1-2 and a lot of fans, as well as the experts, have thought that it is over for Seattle. But we see a small 2-0 run from the Seahawks with the win against L.A. Rams on the road including. Seattle has a better defense no doubt. The offense has struggled so far. Hoston defense will play without Cushing, Mercilus and J. J. Watt. Easy win for Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @1.884 Pinnacle
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SHARPS LAYING CHALK WITH THE CHIEFS IN SATURDAY'S NFL WILD CARD ACTION

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The NFL’s wild-card weekend has brought a bit of wild line movement to the sportsbooks. Covers checks in on the action for Saturday’s two games, with insights from Devyn Brackett, sports analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker-eu.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -9

Kansas City won its first five games SU and ATS, and was the buzz of the league for doing so, but then had a horrendous midseason stretch of 1-6 SU and ATS. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) righted the ship in the late going, winning and cashing four straight, capped by a 27-24 victory at Denver as a 3-point underdog in Week 17.

Tennessee (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had to win on the last weekend to get into the postseason. And while it wasn’t pretty, the Titans did just that, edging Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point home chalk. That effort certainly didn’t convince many bettors to get on Tennessee.

“We took a large bet on the Chiefs, driving that number up to 9,” Bracket said, noting that hefty wager came in on Friday afternoon. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Titans moneyline.”

Bookmaker-eu opened Kansas City -7 and spent most of the week at -9, and it might not stop there. (Find more online sportsbooks and reviews at OddsShark-com).

“This spread is trending toward double digits, as none of the squares see the Titans as a club to back, and the sharps have been fading them the last month or so,” Cooley said. “Currently, we have more than 75 percent of the money on Kansas City.”

Cooley noted the total opened 44.5, ticked up to 45, then down to 44 due to what he termed “respected action,” but he said there’s not much liability to the under. CG has primarily bounced between 44 and 44.5 all week, and Brackett said the ideal result for the book would be the Chiefs winning but not covering, and the total staying under.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Defending NFC champion Atlanta went down to the wire in qualifying for a return postseason trip. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) fended off Carolina 22-10 as a 5-point home favorite in Week 17, wrapping up the No. 6 seed and the chance defend their conference crown.

Los Angeles was among a few huge surprises this season, jumping up and winning the NFC West. The third-seeded Rams (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the division wrapped up heading into Week 17, so they opted to rest quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. Not surprisingly, L.A. lost to San Francisco 34-13 catching 6 points at home.

“We're seeing strong sharp action on both sides of this line. The public is split as well,” Brackett said, noting CG took a $50,000 pointspread wager on the Falcons on Friday. “We are also seeing money on account on the Falcons moneyline.”

Bookmaker-eu also opened the Rams -6 and got as high as -7 before dipping to 5.5 on Friday.

“Action has been a bit of a roller coaster, as the early money was on Atlanta, and then nothing but Rams money for the next four days,” Cooley said. “Just during the last 24 hours, we’ve attracted more action on the underdog, so we currently have almost 65 percent of the handle on L.A.”

Cooley said the professionals are also hitting the under, taking the total from 49 to 48, while the public is on the over. CG is also seeing sharp play on the under, helping take the total from 49.5 to 47.5 Friday morning, before it ticked back up to 48. Brackett said the Rams winning but not covering, in a high-scoring game, would be ideal at this point.

covers-com/Editorial/Art---ays-NFL-Wild-Card-action
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A SATURDAY OF NFL UPSETS LEADS TO A WILD CARD SUNDAY OF UNCERTAINTY AT SPORTSBOOKS

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With two upsets already in the books, the NFL playoffs head into the second day of wild card games. Covers checks in on the action for today’s two matchups, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for Bookmaker-eu.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -9; Move: -7.5; Move: -8.5; Move: -9

Jacksonville, the AFC’s No. 3 seed, had a nice run starting at midseason, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS to take control of the AFC South. And it was a good thing the Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) made that run, as they lost their last two regular-season games, including a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 17.

Buffalo (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) is easily the luckiest playoff participant this year, getting into the tournament when Cincinnati beat Baltimore on a fourth-and-12 touchdown pass from midfield in the final minute of a Week 17 contest. That, coupled with the Bills’ 22-16 victory over Miami as a 2.5-point favorite, got Buffalo the sixth and final seed.

Line movement on this 1:05 p.m. ET kickoff has been quite volatile at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. Early on, the number went straight from 7.5 to 9, and on Saturday, it went directly from 9 to 7.5 before rebounding back to 9.

“Seventy-five percent of account money is on Jacksonville, while we’re fairly even over the counter,” Bernanke said of pointspread betting at CG. “Sixty percent of account moneyline bets are on Jacksonville, while 70 percent of over-the-counter moneyline bets are on Buffalo.”

As CG often notes, its sharper players bet on account, while the public represents the bulk of over-the-counter cash.

Bookmaker-eu opened the Jags -7.5 and reached 9 by Tuesday, where the line remained through Saturday night. (Find more online sportsbooks and reviews at OddsShark-com)

“Jacksonville has been a pretty consistent smart play all year, and the pros didn’t back off the Jags this week,” Cooley said. “The public is on the chalk as well, so we have more than 70 percent of the money on that side. Our biggest total liability of the weekend is this game’s under, as the sharps hit it early and the squares are expecting a defensive battle as well.”

Bookmaker-eu opened the total at 40 and got to 39 Saturday, before ticking up to 39.5. Bernanke said CG is seeing 80 percent of money on the total backing the under, moving from 40 to 39.5.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6

New Orleans claimed the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, largely due to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS tear after losing its first two games. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) finished with a 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point chalk.

Carolina (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) returned to the playoffs as a wild card, after missing out last season following a run to the Super Bowl. The Panthers also enter the postseason on a losing note, falling 22-10 at Atlanta catching 5 points last week.

“Eighty percent of account money is on the Saints, and 80 percent of over-the-counter money is on the Saints,” Bernanke said of very lopsided pointspread betting at CG books. However, on the moneyline - +225 for Carolina on Saturday night – it was a different story. “Three times more Carolina bets on account, and three times more Carolina bets over the counter.”

Bookmaker-eu opened the Saints -5.5, got to 7 at the high point and since Thursday has been at 6.5. Cooley is hoping there’s no need for another upward tick.

“We'd rather not see this get to a touchdown, but that's where we're headed at the moment,” he said. “We know that the squares will be taking the favorite and over in the wild-card finale. But if we move to -7, it’s likely we’ll see a lot of value players enter the fold with Carolina. Which we may need, but at this point, we’re where we want to be on the handle.”

Meanwhile, on the total, CG opened at 48.5 and has been at 48 since Thursday, with Bernanke noting that through Saturday night, 70 percent of money on the total is backing the under.

covers-com/Editorial/Art----nfl-totals-nfl-playoffs
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I'm not specialist about NFL, but i will gladly follow it
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SHARP BETTORS BANKING ON FAVORITES IN SUNDAY'S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND MATCHUPS

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Two rematches from the regular season wrap up the NFL’s divisional playoff round on this mid-January Sunday. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for both games, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -7; Move: None

AFC No. 2 seed Pittsburgh suffered a blowout home loss to Jacksonville back on Oct. 8, tumbling 30-9 as a 7.5-point favorite in a game that saw Ben Roethlisberger throw five interceptions. But the Steelers (13-3 SU, 7-9 ATS) have lost just once since then, and it was hardly embarrassing: a 27-24 home setback to No. 1 seed New England as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 15. Mike Tomlin’s Troops earned a bye with a 10-1 SU run (5-6 ATS), finishing the regular season with a 28-24 win over Cleveland as a 5-point home chalk.

The third-seeded Jaguars (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) lost their last two regular-season outings, but held it together in the wild-card round at home. Jacksonville won an offensive eyesore 10-3 over No. 6 seed Buffalo, coming up just short as an 8-point fave last week.

“Bettors were not impressed with Jacksonville. Bettors here are not believing in Blake Bortles and that offense, and they don’t think lightning can strike twice, beating the Steelers as they did earlier in the year with those five interceptions,” Bernanke said. “Three times more money on Pittsburgh on account, and it’s 85 percent Pittsburgh money over the counter.”

Bernanke said moneyline wagering was also strong on the Steelers, at 90 percent of account money and 66 percent of over-the-counter cash.

Bookmaker.eu also opened Pittsburgh -7, but had a couple spins at 7.5 during the week before sticking at 7 since Wednesday morning.

“Not much to report on the action here, with very little adjustment,” Cooley said of activity for this 1:05 p.m. ET clash. “We've got a few sharps on each side of the spread, and the public bettors are almost split as well, which is a bit surprising considering it’s Pittsburgh. Currently, the money handle favors the Steelers 60/40.”

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5

Minnesota rode third-string quarterback Case Keenum pretty much all season long en route to the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a bye week. The Vikings (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) finished the regular season on an 11-1 SU tear (9-3 ATS), capped by a 23-10 victory over Chicago as a 13.5-point home favorite.

New Orleans (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) lost at Minnesota in its season opener, 29-19 as a 3-point pup, and fell at home to New England in Week 2. But the Saints followed that with eight consecutive wins (7-1 ATS) on their way to the NFC South title and the No. 4 seed. Drew Brees and Co. opened the playoffs with a 31-26 home victory over No. 5 seed Carolina laying 6.5 points at home last week.

“No surprise that the public is siding with the Saints, as they have 70 percent of that action,” Cooley said. “The pros have really only been interested in Minnesota, and they like the Vikings quite a bit. The over in this game is our biggest total liability of the weekend, as both sharps and squares are expecting points.”

That action took the total at Bookmaker.eu from the opener of 45 up to 47.

CG books also opened Minnesota -4, and the line reached 5.5 by Wednesday night before ticking back to 5 a day later and then 4.5 late Saturday night.

“Two times more Minnesota money on account, and fairly even over the counter,” Bernanke said of pointspread activity, while noting that the Saints had a 2/1 margin on account in moneyline wagering.

Further, like Bookmaker.eu, CG bettors are expecting points in this 4:40 p.m. ET kickoff.

“Ninety percent of all dollars on the total are on the over, on account and over the counter,” Bernanke said, adding that took the total from 44 to 46.5.

covers.com/Editorial/Art...ivisional-Round-matchups
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