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Hand Analysis: What's your next move?

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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2500/5000 Blinds 600 Ante (8 handed) -

saw flop | saw showdown

CO (t152510)
Button (t190622)
SB (t187203)
Gheecko ( BB ) (t305100)
UTG (t152802)
UTG+1 (t221495)
tassat609 (MP1) (t108974)
MP2 (t97829)

Gheecko's M: 24.80

Preflop: Gheecko is BB with ,Kc4c
2 folds, tassat609 bets t11999, 4 folds, Gheecko calls t6999

Flop: (t31298) , 4dKsJs, (2 players)
Gheecko bets t12500, tassat609 calls t12500

Turn: (t56298) 2c (2 players)


How would you proceed if you were me😟
Join: 2008/04/07 Messages: 58
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gheecko wrote:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2500/5000 Blinds 600 Ante (8 handed) -

saw flop | saw showdown

CO (t152510)
Button (t190622)
SB (t187203)
Gheecko ( BB ) (t305100)
UTG (t152802)
UTG+1 (t221495)
tassat609 (MP1) (t108974)
MP2 (t97829)

Gheecko's M: 24.80

Preflop: Gheecko is BB with ,Kc4c
2 folds, tassat609 bets t11999, 4 folds, Gheecko calls t6999

Flop: (t31298) , 4dKsJs, (2 players)
Gheecko bets t12500, tassat609 calls t12500

Turn: (t56298) 2c (2 players)


How would you proceed if you were me😟

[FONT=Franklin Gothic Medium]OK. . .you've actually made my head hurt thinking about this. I think the question you need to ask yourself is why you played this hand to begin with. It's almost guaranteed to be nothing but trouble. And I tend to favor an opinion that defending your blinds with marginal hands is not generally worth it. . .

The turn itself is pretty irrelevant. Should be a complete brick unless he had made that small a raise with 22 hoping to flop a set. . .

Kings over 4s is just too vulnerable. If the MP1 player raised with KJ you're in bad shape. If he raised with Q10 or a suited connectors he's got a draws that you may end up paying off on if the river hits. So much for the obvious. . .

Some players may overbet the pot here trying to get their opponent to fold, but that could also make you appear weak and encourage a call -- which if nothing goes wrong wouldn't be a bad thing. Might even encourage a raise by your opponent if he senses weakness and then you'd be stuck either folding or pushing back, likely pushing him all-in leaving you in the hands of the poker gods. . .
[/FONT][FONT=Franklin Gothic Medium]
Or, maybe you just shove on the turn and put him to the tough decision. He's not gonna fold sets or KJ. He may not even fold AK or KQ if that's what he raised pre with. [Great as long as the river's a brick also.] It's a question of whether he'll fold straight and/or flush draws. . .

[/FONT][FONT=Franklin Gothic Medium] This could be a good spot for a check-raise, but by checking you risking giving a free card and a shot at a draw or improving to a better two pair if he has a K also. But if he does he should be betting to try to stop you from trying to hit one of the draws. . .

You've got him covered, but if he's got the better hand -- or catches it on the river -- you're gonna end up a slightly short stack than him after this hand ends. So again, why did you even bother?

Aspirin, please. . . :helpme
[/FONT]
Join: 2008/12/20 Messages: 856
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SycoSteve wrote:

[FONT=Franklin Gothic Medium]OK. . .you've actually made my head hurt thinking about this. I think the question you need to ask yourself is why you played this hand to begin with. It's almost guaranteed to be nothing but trouble. And I tend to favor an opinion that defending your blinds with marginal hands is not generally worth it. . .

The turn itself is pretty irrelevant. Should be a complete brick unless he had made that small a raise with 22 hoping to flop a set. . .

Kings over 4s is just too vulnerable. If the MP1 player raised with KJ you're in bad shape. If he raised with Q10 or a suited connectors he's got a draws that you may end up paying off on if the river hits. So much for the obvious. . .

Some players may overbet the pot here trying to get their opponent to fold, but that could also make you appear weak and encourage a call -- which if nothing goes wrong wouldn't be a bad thing. Might even encourage a raise by your opponent if he senses weakness and then you'd be stuck either folding or pushing back, likely pushing him all-in leaving you in the hands of the poker gods. . .
[/FONT][FONT=Franklin Gothic Medium]
Or, maybe you just shove on the turn and put him to the tough decision. He's not gonna fold sets or KJ. He may not even fold AK or KQ if that's what he raised pre with. [Great as long as the river's a brick also.] It's a question of whether he'll fold straight and/or flush draws. . .

[/FONT][FONT=Franklin Gothic Medium] This could be a good spot for a check-raise, but by checking you risking giving a free card and a shot at a draw or improving to a better two pair if he has a K also. But if he does he should be betting to try to stop you from trying to hit one of the draws. . .

You've got him covered, but if he's got the better hand -- or catches it on the river -- you're gonna end up a slightly short stack than him after this hand ends. So again, why did you even bother?

Aspirin, please. . . :helpme
[/FONT]

The two pair is vulnerable here as you are most likely up against the set or a high percantage draw. Your on a slippery slope. Most times I get in this hand I get thrashed. Proceed with caution.
Join: 2009/03/29 Messages: 399
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tallseas wrote:

The two pair is vulnerable here as you are most likely up against the set or a high percantage draw. Your on a slippery slope. Most times I get in this hand I get thrashed. Proceed with caution.

I probably would not call the raise pre-flop.

On flop I would mini-raise him.

And with all that situation, fold on turn.
Join: 2009/04/12 Messages: 38
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gheecko wrote:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2500/5000 Blinds 600 Ante (8 handed) -

saw flop | saw showdown

CO (t152510)
Button (t190622)
SB (t187203)
Gheecko ( BB ) (t305100)
UTG (t152802)
UTG+1 (t221495)
tassat609 (MP1) (t108974)
MP2 (t97829)

Gheecko's M: 24.80

Preflop: Gheecko is BB with ,Kc4c
2 folds, tassat609 bets t11999, 4 folds, Gheecko calls t6999

Flop: (t31298) , 4dKsJs, (2 players)
Gheecko bets t12500, tassat609 calls t12500

Turn: (t56298) 2c (2 players)


How would you proceed if you were me😟

I would make the same raise as you previously made. The odds are on your side that he does not have a higher hand and he is hoping to catch an ace or two pair. Either way with your stack its worth it to bet into that pot.
Join: 2009/03/12 Messages: 48
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