England vs Spain

UEFA Nations League – England vs Spain Match Preview



We’ve got a cracking match here in the UEFA Nations League between England and Spain. This is the first match since the world cup for both sides as they look to start with a win in this new competition at Wembley!

Key Facts

Although they reached the World Cup Semi Final, England lost all 3 matches to teams that are involved in League A. They lost to Belgium twice and to Croatia. An easier bracket may have caused England overachieve.

Harry Kane was the top scorer at the world cup with 6.

In the last 5 meetings between England and Spain, only 1 match had BTTS  - Yes. Also only one had an over 2.5 goals so these teams don’t normally have high scoring affairs.

In the past 5 meetings between these nations, Spain won 3, England won 1 and the other was a draw.

When England faced top level opposition (Belgium and Croatia) all 3 of their games ended with an under 2.5 after 90 minutes. England have only scored one goal in those 3 matches.

England games tend to be very low scoring against top level oppositions. Most recently they drew 0-0 with Germany and Brazil, 1-1 with Italy, beat Netherlands 1-0, lost to Belgium 0-1 and 0-2 and lost to Croatia 2-1 (1-1 after 90 mins). Not one of those games had an over 2.5 after 90 minutes. England tend to set up more defensively against those type of teams

Spain are coming off a shocking world cup where they got knocked out in R16 by Hosts Russia. It was a tournament where Spain only won one out of 4 games (1-0 against Iran). They drew with Portugal, Morocco and Russia who they lost to on pens eventually.

Spain were not good defensively at the world cup conceding 6 goals in 4 games. Only kept one clean sheet.

Spain are a little better than England when it comes to beating top level opposition. In the past 12 months they beat Italy 3-0, Argentina 6-1, had a 1-1 away draw at Germany and drew with Portugal 3-3. Their games tend to be much more high scoring when they meet these type of teams.

In 2018, Spain’s top scorers are Isco and Costa who are both joint with 4 goals. With Costa out for this match, England MUST watchout for Isco.

Team News

England: Not many chances expected from England. Pickford and back 3 are all expected to stay the same. Meanwhile at full back positions there may be a change at LB with Luke Shaw playing really well recently. Trippier is expected to play RB. Lingard Alli and Henderson are all expected to start meanwhile Raheem Sterling is injured and is out. With Sterling out we can expected Rashford to slot in and of course Harry Kane is expected to start up front for England. Not many changes are expected. Rashford for Sterling, Shaw for Young are the most likely changes here for an otherwise unchanged line-up. Expect England to set up to play on the back foot and attempt to hit Spain on counters.

Spain: De Gea is still expected to be Spain’s no1 in goal but his recent performances does put a pressure on him especially with Kepa Arrizabalaga playing well right now. At the back, Jordi Alba has been left out while Gerard Pique is retired from international football meaning there will be a shake up at the back for Spain following the world cup. Iniesta and David Silva are also retired from international football while Diego Costa is not going to play for personal reasons so Morata has been called back up to play for Spain. Marcos Alonso has been called up after fantastic form shown at Chelsea so far this season and he could very well slot in for Jordi Alba. We should expect Spain to play a 4-3-3 possession based football with Isco and Asensio on the wings. Morata will most likely start up front. Expect Spain to have their usual 60-70% possession by dominating midfield and trying to find ways to break down England’s defence. Isco will be the main threat here.

Betting Tips

Under 2.5 would be our pick for this match but the odds are relatively low at 1.62 right now so we wouldn’t really recommend placing that bet unless you want to put something into an accumulator. The recent games between England and Spain are low scoring. The games at Wembley in general are low scoring when an elite team comes to play England just look at Brazil Germany and Italy all coming here and drawing 0-0 0-0 and 1-1. A draw seems like a very likely scenario here. England very rarely lose at Wembley but they do tend to have a ton of draws against top teams even against Spain most recently in 2016 they drew 2-2 (The only over 2.5 game in the 5 past meetings). A draw at 3.15 does look like a bet that’s worth the try too. We just don’t see this game being that entertaining, it’s going to be a tactical battle and it has the potential to end either 1-0 to one team or a 0-0 draw. With Costa out, Isco becomes Spain’s biggest threat since Morata doesn’t score goals so Isco to score anytime at 4.00 is a bet worth the try for people who like to take risks with high odds.

To summarise these are our recommended picks. A draw at 3.15, Isco to score anytime 4.00 and under 2.5 at 1.62 (more of a pick to put in an accumulator). This will either be a 1-0 Spain win or a 1-1 draw. All odds based on TonyBet and they’re subject to change before the match starts.

Match Odds (TonyBet)

England Win – 2.95

Draw – 3.15

Spain Win – 2.63

KICK OFF – 8th September 2018 – 7:45pm UK Time