The revenge of last years Western Conference Finals as the Golden State Warriors take on the Houston Rockets in what is arguably the most anticipated playoff match up of the post season so far as Houston will seek to avenge the defeat of last year and kill Golden State’s hopes for a 3 peat!
Golden State Warriors
The defending champions have gone through what definitely ended up being a tougher series than expected as they had to take 6 games to take down the LA Clippers in the First Round.
Warriors have been relatively up and down in the 1st round, they have had some lapses in effort which has cost them a couple of games, but when they would turn it on they have looked flat out unbeatable and the inconsistent effort is definitely one thing that Golden State has to fix because Houston are a different type of fish and they do legitimately have a chance of beating Golden State thus the Warriors have to be playing at 100% in every game because if they don’t, the Rockets will punish them and will take the series if the Warriors start playing lackluster basketball.
The play of Kevin Durant has been the biggest positive for the Warriors. KD has been playing out of his mind in the Playoffs averaging 35/5/5 on 57% shooting and has elevated his game even more from Games 3-6 where he put up 41.5 ppg and dropped 50 in the closeout game against the Clippers. Durant has been absolutely sensational so far and in the rhythm that he’s in at the moment, don’t be surprised if KD goes off yet again in this series.
A concern for Golden State entering this series has to be their health. If healthy, this team clearly is the best team in the NBA and when they’re playing a their highest level they’re unbeatable. With Cousins out, Warriors have done a good job replacing him with Andrew Bogut, however the recent Steph Curry twist of an ankle and him hobbling around against the Clippers is a concern for Golden State as they absolutely need their star point guard to be at 100% which he clearly doesn’t seem to be right now and may not be to start the series despite him definitely playing in Game 1.
Warriors bench has to continue to be productive in this series which has been so far in the Playoffs averaging 33.3 pts per game with Iguodala leading the 2nd unit by playing as well as he has all year long averaging 10/4/4 while being great defensively and he’ll be a major factor with his defense against Houston’s explosive guards. Iguodala has done a great job on Lou Williams in some of the games in Round 1 especially when they met in LA and he is likely going to be Golden State’s primary defender against the Rockets superstars making him a huge X factor in this series.
Home court advantage for the Warriors could also be a key factor in this series. Although Golden State are 1-2 at home and 3-0 on the road in these playoffs and overall they have not been quite the unbeatable team here this season, potentially having a Game 7 at home works to their advantage massively especially considering how loud that crowd gets. No matter the home record so far, the Oracle is still one of the toughest places to win at and in a series like this, Golden State having that advantage gives them a big edge in this series especially if they steal one on the road in Houston because the chances of the Warriors losing 2 at home in back to back series are highly unlikely.
To sum it up for the Warriors, they must stay healthy and not lose anymore key players to injuries, Steph has to get right, they got to play with effort as when they do they’re literally unbeatable and Andre Iguodala has to continue to be the X factor that he’s been so far with his great all around display whether it’s making plays for others, knocking down wide open shots or playing defense against Houston’s stars and neutralising either Harden or Paul. These are all keys the Warriors will need to achieve if they want to beat this hungry Rockets team for the 2nd straight year. It won’t be easy, but they’re the defending champions and the title favourites so if Golden State just do what they do best and play their brand of basketball they should be able to win this series.
Houston Rockets
Houston have arguably been the hottest team in the NBA ever since the all star break and have translated that into the Playoffs as they dispatched the Utah Jazz in 5 games in what was an impressive display by Houston despite their MVP James Harden only shooting 37%.
Rockets have really elevated their level of play on the defensive end (4th best in the Playoffs) and with their offense being inconsistent in the 1st round, they have found other ways to take down Utah which really tells a lot about how good the Rockets are.
Defense is going to be the Rockets biggest key entering this series against the Warriors. Houston have some fantastic individual defenders whether it’s Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, PJ Tucker and even James Harden has been better at it and that has been translating onto the court in the Playoffs so far as they were able to limit the Utah Jazz to one of the worst offenses in the Playoffs and they have done a tremendous job on shutting down Donovan Mitchell to 35% shooting. Last year when the Rockets took Golden State to 7 their calling card was defense as they were able to keep games low scoring by suffocating Golden State’s explosive offense keeping them under 100 points a couple of times and thanks to it they were able to go ahead 3-2 in the series and would’ve likely won it had Chris Paul not got hurt.
The play of James Harden is another big key. Harden simply has to be more efficient. Harden always seems to have a slight drop off in his efficiency in the Playoffs and yet again this year has been no different so far as he is putting up good numbers at 28/7/8, but his shooting percentages have been horrendous at 37% from the field which has to improve for James because he not only dropped by 8 points but also by 7 percentage points shooting wise in the Playoffs compared to Regular Season. Harden has especially been bad in Games 3-5 in which he’s shooting 32% after being pretty good in the first two games. Harden struggled last year against Golden State too only shooting 41% from the field and 24% from 3 which essentially cost them the series. Rockets will absolutely need Harden to recapture that Regular Season form and may need him to average 35+ on efficient shooting to knock off these Golden State Warriors.
The X factor of this series for Houston is PJ Tucker. He is their best defender and the guy who makes the most amount of hustle plays which could be key. Tucker will be expected to be the primary defender on Kevin Durant and that is going to a very huge match up for Houston as Tucker is about as good as anyone defensively in the NBA. PJ Tucker is one of the few players in this league that can disrupt KD and given how hot Durant has been for the Warriors, the Rockets will need the very best of PJ Tucker in this series. Last year Tucker had good success with KD but even then Durant dropped 30 per game on 46% shooting though there were some games where he struggled.
Shot making is another big key for the Rockets. Last year they missed 27 straight threes in Game 7 which pretty much killed them off and cost them a Finals spot. Rockets are a very streaky 3 point shooting team, they can either hit them in bunches or miss them in bunches as we saw last year. Rockets are a 3 point shooting machine and like to take a lot of 3 pointers and it’ll be necessary for Houston to stay hot from beyond the arc if they want to win this series. If they get cold from 3 then it’s going to be a problem. Gordon, Green, Harden, Paul, House, Tucker, Rivers are all capable 3 point shooters and will need to get it going for Houston to have a shot.
Bench play is one final key. Houston have a talented bench and can go 8-9 deep with players such as Rivers, Faried, House, Green even Shumpert but they just haven’t played well so far in the Playoffs. These are all good role players to have and on paper you could argue Houston have a more talented bench, however these guys will need to translate it on the court. If Houston can get extra fire power from some of these guys then they really could have a chance at an upset.
To sum it up, there are a lot of things that gotta go right for Houston. The health of Chris Paul is one thing we forgot to mention, but with him being hurt last year with 3-2 up, Houston surrendered the series lead and lost 3-4 so that sums up how important a healthy Chris Paul is. Houston have to knock down shots, get Harden going again, get more production from the bench and defensively they must be on their A game like they were in the first round and may even need to be better considering how explosive Golden State are. The play of PJ Tucker will also be key, he’s going to be the primary defender on KD and if he neutralises KD, then Houston’s chances would increase drastically. There’s a lot of things, but Houston have shown that they can give the Warriors a fight over the last 2 years not just in the Playoff series last year, but also in the Regular Season the past 2 years beating them quite often and they are arguably the biggest threat to the Champions right now therefore don’t underestimate this squad.
Regular Season H2H
Rockets have won the season series 3-1 this year against Golden State and have gone 2-0 against them at the Oracle despite not having both Harden and Paul healthy at the same time in both road games against GS. The road team has won 3 of the 4 meetings and mostly the games were very close as 3 of those 4 games were decided by 6 pts or less, 2 of those decided by 1 or 2 points. Houston have proved last year they can compete with the Warriors, but this year it seems like Houston have got their number because whenever they play, Houston just don’t seem to give up an inch and winning 3 of the 4 meetings with the only defeat coming by 2 points just a season after holding a 3-2 series lead before their star guard went out clearly proves that Houston know how to play Golden State which essentially does make them the biggest threat to the Warriors as already said.
What to expect in the series
This is going to go all the way and we’re going to go with an upset as Rockets takes this series in either 6 or 7 games. Houston have shown that they can beat the Warriors whether it’s home or on the road, they have taken down Golden State 4 times in their last 6 visits to Oracle, they have a massive chance to beat them in Game 1 considering how much more the Rockets had to prepare as Warriors took their time with the Clippers and the fact that Steph Curry does not look like he’ll be 100% factors in too.
The main factor why we’re picking the Rockets to win this series is it seems like the Warriors are starting to wear out at this point whereas Houston look fresh, they’re hungry and healthy at the moment and they probably won’t have a better chance to win than here. Warriors have been their absolute best at times against the Clippers no doubt, but they have also been very up and down with their effort and because this has now been happening for quite some time ever since the Regular Season, it does seem like Golden State Warriors are wearing out after making 4 straight Finals appearances thus causing them to have poor effort in certain games and we do believe it’ll happen in this series too which essentially will cost the Warriors the 3 peat. Rockets are destined for a bounce back
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