Europa League 2018-19 Final – Chelsea vs Arsenal Betting Preview

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For the first time in 47 years we have an all British Europa League/UEFA Cup Final as Chelsea take on Arsenal in a London derby in Baku!

This is a game that some would say is more important for the Reds as Arsenal are in need of a win to qualify for the Champions League since they finished 5^th in the league whereas Chelsea have already secured the Champions League spot with a top 4 finish, but with Maurizio Sarri gunning for his first career title and an opportunity to hurt their rivals and win a trophy themselves, you’d have to say Chelsea will be going for this just as much as the Gunners.

Chelsea have reached the Final after pretty much going through a Eastern European tour during the knockouts beating Swedish Malmo 5-1 on aggregate, Ukrainian Dynamo Kiev 8-0 on aggregate, Czech Republic’s Slavia Prague 5-3 on aggregate and German side Frankfurt on penalties in what was by far their toughest challenge but they overcame it. The Blues have been on fire going forward in the knockouts scoring 20 goals in 8 games though some would say the level of competition wasn’t that great until the Semi Final tie where they only scored 2 over 2 legs.

Chelsea have reached the Final without a single defeat and if you extend it to their 2013 Europa League campaign, they’re currently unbeaten in 17 games in this competition which is record. Chelsea look to become the first ever team to win the Europa League without a single defeat as nobody else has done so.

Arsenal have had a slightly tougher road to the Final having faced 2 of the top sides on their way and having to overcome 1^st leg deficits in a few games too. They defeated BATE 3-1 on aggregate after losing the 1^st leg 1-0, then beat Rennes 4-3 on aggregate also overcoming a 1^st leg deficit which was 3-1, then the Gunners defeated Napoli over 2 legs winning both home and away (2-0, 0-1) and in the Semis Arsenal put together a fantastic display scoring 7 goals past Valencia over 2 legs also beating them home and away (3-1 and 2-4). Arsenal have improved as the competition has gone on and the tougher the opponents have been the better they’ve performed mainly thanks to their incredible attacking display scoring 17 goals in 8 knockout games.

Arsenal have struggled against English opposition in European ties having not won a single match against their country opponents in Europe throughout their history in 6 meetings (2D 4L) which includes 2 meetings against Chelsea in the 2004 Champions League Quarters where Chelsea won one game and drew the other against Arsenal.

Both teams have shown decent form to end the season, nothing special but not bad. Chelsea have only lost 1 of their final 12 competitive games though drawing 5 (90 mins) and winning 6 it’s hard to say they’ve been winning games for fun. Chelsea have finished the season with 5 draws in final 6 games with one of those draws resulting in a penalty shootout win against Frankfurt so they haven’t really been tasting victories in the final couple of weeks of the season, but you can also make a case for a very tough fixture list facing Frankfurt home and away, Man Utd away and Leicester away to end the season in a meaningless game so most of these draws were decent results for Chelsea especially considering it got them to finish in top 4 and reach the Europa League final.

As for Arsenal, they have been inconsistent, but seem to be playing well again just before the Final. Arsenal gone through a 3 game stretch where they lost to Palace, Leicester and Wolves leaking in 3 goals in each game, but then responded with a 2 leg tie win over Valencia 7-3, a disappointing draw with Brighton 1-1, but also finished with an impressive 1-3 win at Burnley. Arsenal’s Europa League form is seemingly far superior at the moment compared to their domestic form which is quite tragic. If the Gunners perform like they’ve done in EL in the past 5 games then they will be in great hands, but if they revert to domestic form they could be in big trouble. Going forward they’re fantastic scoring goals for fun, but at the back it’s a concern as they’ve leaked in 14 goals and kept no clean sheets in final 7 games across all competitions.

Arsenal do have an edge when it comes to title winning manager in this Final. Unai Emery has won 3 Europa League titles winning all of his last 3 Finals (2014 2015 and 2016) with Sevilla and if he does so again it’d be the new competitions record 4 titles as a manager of this competition whereas Maurizio Sarri has never won a trophy in general.

Eden Hazard without a doubt is the man to watch for Chelsea. Clubs leading Goal/Assist man across all competitions though he hasn’t scored in Europa League mainly to lack of playing time since Chelsea didn’t really need him until the Semis but an assist in the 2^nd leg and a winning penalty in the shootout should mean that Eden is on his game entering this Final and considering it may be his final Chelsea game ever, expect the Belgian to drop a masterclass. Olivier Giroud is another man to watch given his Europa League record with 10 goals in the competition.

As for Arsenal, the duo of Pierre Emerick Aubameyang and Alexander Lacazette is the one to watch and if they want to win they will HAVE to be performing at a high level. Both were exceptional against Valencia with Aubameyang scoring 4 including a 2^nd leg hattrick and Lacazette scoring 3 across both legs while also delivering multiple assists. The duo altogether have scored 50 goals this season with Aubameyang scoring 31 (8 in EL) and Lacazette scoring 19 (5 in EL). Arsenal will go as far as these two go.

Chelsea and Arsenal have faced twice this season splitting wins at home. The Blues won 3-2 at Stamford Bridge in one of the games of the season where both clubs just went back and forth creating multiple chances and then Arsenal won their home game 2-0 in a dominant fashion. The Gunners have held an edge over Chelsea in recent meetings dating back to 2017 winning 4 of last 8 and only losing once to Chelsea in this period (3D). Arsenal have won each of last 3 Cup Finals winning the 2017 FA Cup and 2 Community Shields in 2015 and 2017 so the edge definitely goes to Arsenal when it comes to recent H2H.

Arsenal and Chelsea have had quite a few high scoring games, last 10 meetings seeing 26 goals, 7 of them having over 2.5 goals. Bar a couple of 0-0 draws in between, this is a fixture that has provided entertainment over the past 2-3 years.

Chelsea are priced as odds on favourites to win the match in 90 minutes but only slightly offered to win at 2.35 whereas Arsenal to win is 3.10 with Draw offered at 3.35. Chelsea are also marginal favourites to win the title at 1.70 whereas Arsenal are 2.10. The odds are based on TonyBet.

Team News

Chelsea: Chelsea have a number of key injuries coming into the Final. Antonio Rudiger, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi are all out whereas N’Golo Kante is 50/50 and will have to face late fitness tests and if he can’t go the Blues would be stuck with 3 fit midfielders in Jorginho, Kovacic and Barkley.

Arsenal: Henrikh Mkhitaryan did not travel with the team while Hector Bellerin, Aaron Ramsey and Rob Holding all remain out. Danny Welbeck did travel with the team though and could be available despite not playing since November due to injury.

Betting Stats (EL Based) – O/Void/U and W/Void/L Format

Chelsea have covered 42.9% of their total goal overs in Europa League this season (6-2-6).

Chelsea have covered 42.9% of their total 1^st half goal overs in Europa League this season (6-1-7).

Chelsea average 1.07 bookings per game in the Europa League this season (15 bookings in 14 games).

6 of Chelsea’s 14 Europa League games have had BTTS – Yes, 8 of them had BTTS – No

Chelsea have covered 42.9% of their Handicaps in Europa League this season (6-1-7).

Chelsea have covered 57.1% of their 1^st half Handicaps in Europa League this season (8-1-5).

Arsenal have covered 42.9% of their total goal overs in Europa League this season (6-1-7).

Arsenal have covered 50% of their total 1^st half goal overs in Europa League this season (7-1-6).

Arsenal average 1.43 bookings per game in the Europa League this season (20 bookings in 14 games).

Only 4 of Arsenal’s 14 Europa League games have had BTTS – Yes. 10 of them had BTTS – No

Arsenal have covered 64.3% of their Handicaps in Europa League this season (9-0-5).