The Champions League Semis are here and we have two of the biggest surprise teams face off in the 1st leg as Tottenham host Ajax!
Neither team were expected to be here but here we are as both Spurs and Ajax have knocked off some serious European giants on their way to the Semis.
To begin, Spurs were at one point facing elimination in the Group Stages, but late hit in form and 7 pts from final 9 earned them a 2nd spot over Inter and PSV, but below Barca which then caused them to face Dortmund who they beat 4-0 on aggregate and then Spurs faced then the favourites in Manchester City who they knocked off on away goals 4-4 after thrilling 2nd leg fixture where they lost 4-3 on the day but advanced on away goals despite falling behind at one point. This is Tottenham’s tied best ever Champions League run as they’ve reached the Semis for the first time since 1962.
Ajax have become just the 3rd team in competitions history to reach the Semis after starting in the Qualifiers. Ajax of course comfortably qualified to the group stages where again did a solid job getting 2nd place without tasting a single defeat, nearly edging Bayern for 1st. Ajax then knocked out Real Madrid 5-3 on aggregate after a famous 1-4 win at the Bernabeu and beat Ronaldo’s led Juventus 3-2 on aggregate after another famous 1-2 away win in Italy. Ajax have been the ultimate giant killers in this competitions and they have thoroughly been outplaying these teams to reach the Semis. Ajax have definitely been one of the most entertaining sides in this competition if not THE most entertaining. A young team with ambition clearly look like a legitimate trophy contender now. Ajax have only lost 1 game altogether in this competition which came to Real Madrid at home which they as mentioned overturned in the 2nd leg.
Tottenham have been on an inconsistent run of form lately winning 5 of their last 10, but also losing 5 in this stretch. Spurs haven’t particularly looked convincing lately especially after knocking out Man City, they then went on to lose to Man City in the league 1-0, needed a late winner against Brighton to win 1-0 and lost 0-1 to West Ham. Injuries could be catching up to them because ever since that famous UCL tie, they have looked very lackluster especially going forward. One thing that is going well for Spurs form wise though is their Champions League form as they’ve won 5 of last 7 in the competition (1D 1L).
Ajax have been absolutely red hot for weeks now. 13 wins from last 15 (1D 1L), they have continued to score goals at an immense rate and easily are playing their best football of the season. Ajax are currently still in all 3 competitions (league, cup, CL) and on current form they could very well look at completing the treble. Ajax are currently on a 4 game winning run where they’ve scored 13 goals and are coming off a impressive 4-2 win against Vitesse in the Eredivisie which kept them top of the league there.
Tottenham have been really good at home lately. They’ve won 8 of last 10 (1D 1L) while conceding just 4 goals and ever since moving into the new stadium they have a 4W 0D 1L record while keeping 4 clean sheets and conceding just ONE goal. Now they did lose their last game against West Ham 0-1, but overall looking at Spurs, they have been much, much better playing in front of their fans in the past few months they are a far better defensive team here and having that behind them in the 1st leg is going to be very important if they want to come away with a lead before going to Holland.
Spurs have a very good home record in the Champions League as well this season. After losing 2-4 to Barcelona in their first home game, they won all of their next 4 beating Inter 1-0, PSV 2-1, Dortmund 3-0 and Man City 1-0. One again, defensively they have been elite in Europe at home and that’s key considering Ajax are very explosive going forward.
Ajax have won 7 of their last 8 away games altogether and each of their last 4 scoring 10 goals. Ajax have been basically just as explosive away from home as they are at home this season. They have actually been a better away side in the Champions League as they have not lost a single away game in the competition and they have advanced from R16 and QF by winning away games whereas they didn’t win either knockout home game. Ajax have beaten AEK 0-2, drew 1-1 with Benfica, 1-1 with Bayern and beat Real Madrid 1-4 and Juventus 1-2. Ajax have been exceptional in big away games so far this season in the Champions League.
Christian Eriksen is the player to watch for Tottenham. With Son and Kane both out, the pressure on Eriksen to deliver is big. Eriksen has 6 goal contributions in UCL and is tied 2nd in assists altogether this season with 4 (2 goals). Eriksen is Tottenham’s main assist man as yet again he has double figures in all competitions and he’s capable of coming up with big goals, plus he’s playing his former club in Ajax so don’t be surprised to see Eriksen drop a masterclass of a performance here. His creativity will be crucial for Spurs going forward.
Ajax have multiple threats like Ziyech, Neres, Tadic, Huntelaar etc. but we’re going to single out Tadic here as the key man. Tadic has been Ajax’s best player this season he’s delivered in big games and his numbers are through the roof as he has 34G 19A across all competitions for the club. Plus excluding qualifiers, Tadic is UCL’s 3rd top scorer and 2nd in assists with 6 and 4 which says it all really about how great he’s been this season.
Tottenham and Ajax do not have any recent H2H meetings and haven’t faced each other since the 1981-82 season when Tottenham beat Ajax 6-1 on aggregate in the Cup Winners Cup.
Tottenham have not lost any of their last 6 meetings against Eredivisie sides winning 4 of them and the most recent side that they faced from this league was this season when they beat PSV 2-1 at home and drew 2-2 away from home in two very tough games.
Ajax have won just 1 of their last 6 games against Premier League sides though they did draw 4 of them and lost just once. They have not lost in any of their last 3 visits to England (2x Arsenal and once at Man City).
The bookies have this tie as very evenly matched. Spurs are slight favourites to win on the day offered at 2.30 whereas Ajax to win is 3.45with Draw tipped at 3.35. However, Ajax are tipped as slight favourites to advance at 1.80 whereas Spurs is 2.02 yet again the margin is very minimal. Having the away game first works to Ajax’s advantage here and Spurs missing a couple of key players in the 1st leg at least definitely justifies why Ajax are slightly favoured to advance here. The odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Tottenham Hotspur: Tottenham have some serious blows as they are missing Harry Kane to injury and Son Heung Min to suspension who are their top 2 goal scorers therefore we may see Llorente start. Furthermore, Harry Winks is also out however Moussa Sissoko and Jan Vertonghen could return into the line-up.
Ajax: Hassane Bande and Carel Elting are the only absentees for the visitors which isn’t a big deal for them considering they wouldn’t start anyway.
Betting Stats (UCL Based)
*Ajax’s stats will also include qualifiers since their campaign started at that stage
Tottenham have covered 40% of their total goal overs at home in UCL this season (2-3).
Tottenham have covered just 20% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in UCL this season (1-4).
Harry Kane and Son are Tottenham’s top scorers at home in UCL with 3 and 2 home European goals (55.5% of total home goals), but with them out, the next top scorers are Eriksen, Lamela, Llorente and Vertonghen with 1 home CL goal each.
Tottenham average 2.4 bookings per game at home in the UCL this season (12 goals in 5 games).
Tottenham have covered 60% of their Handicaps at home in the UCL this season (3-2).
Tottenham have covered 20% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in the UCL this season (1-4). Better 2nd half team.
Ajax have covered 50% of their total goal overs away from home in UCL this season (4-4).
Ajax have covered 50% of their total 1st half goal overs away from home in UCL this season (4-2-2).
Dusan Tadic is Ajax’s top scorer away from home in UCL with 6 away European goals this season.
Ajax average 1.75 bookings per game away from home in the UCL this season (14 bookings in 8 games).
Ajax have covered 87.5% of their Handicaps away from home in the UCL this season (7-1).
Ajax have covered 62.5% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in the UCL this season (5-1-2).
KICK OFF – 30th April 2019 – 8pm UK Time
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