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The Champions League is back after a weeks break and we have the 2nd legs of the Round of 16 Stage. 3 time defending champions Real Madrid will seek to complete the job and advance to the Quarters as they host Ajax!
Real Madrid currently hold a 2-1 aggregate lead as they picked up a tough 1-2 away win in Netherlands in a game where Ajax really dominated for the most part, but Madrid’s experience came through as they converted their chances and now look in firm position to reach the next round.
However, the still is some concern in Madrid’s camp right now. Since their 1-2 win at Ajax, Real Madrid have really plummeted in form losing 3 of 4 games in Domestic competitions including losing 3 consecutive games at the Bernabeu to Girona and Barcelona twice without even scoring against Barca.
Ajax meanwhile have hit a good vein of form since that defeat and have scored 13 goals in 3 domestic games which includes a 0-3 win against Feyenoord. Sure the competition might not be as elite as Madrid’s, but Ajax are definitely the team on a high and will come into this game believing they can upset the European champions.
As mentioned, Madrid have lately been awful at the Bernabeu and for some reason and have not been performing to their capabilities in front of their fans, they lost 3 straight scoring just 1 goal and if you were to look at their season as a whole they’ve had a lot of weird defeats like 0-3 to CSKA, 0-2 to Sociedad, 1-2 to Levante, 1-2 to Girona so to say that Madrid are definitely going through would be too risky. Madrid will have to pick it up if they want to finish the job.
Ajax are a decent away side, in the Champions League they’re unbeaten on their travels with 1W 2D and have picked up a point against Bayern at Allianz arena already, obviously that wouldn’t be enough but its encouraging that Ajax have already been able to go to a big ground and get a result this season and should give them confidence to believe that they can win and knock off Madrid.
Key player for Real Madrid is of course Karim Benzema. He’s dropped in form ever since his goal against Ajax and that has led to Real’s form dipping itself. Benzema is a huge key for Real Madrid’s attack and they need to get him going again if they want to get a couple of goals and definitely secure this qualification. Karim has a great record against Ajax with 4G 4A, scoring or assisting in all of his 6 games against them. At the same time, the whole back line is going to be important, they’ve had their ups and downs this season but they must be organised to hold off Ajax’s dangerous attack, it’ll be interesting to see how they deal with Ajax especially with Ramos out.
As for Ajax, it’s all about attacking players right now. The two key culprits of their dangerous attack are Dusan Tadic and Hakim Ziyech. The two creative players have had an amazing season and have been able to score goals and provide assists for fun all season long. Their creativity will be key if Ajax want to have a shot at beating Madrid. Considering that Real have a weakened, out of form back line for this game there is definitely a chance for Ajax’s attackers to feast on an opportunity.
Madrid have been able to get the best of Ajax during this decade with 7 wins from 7 H2H matches since 2010, however most of them came when Real still had Ronaldo and were a much better side than now. As mentioned, Real had a much tougher time against Ajax this season despite winning 1-2. If Ajax can improve their finishing in the return leg, there is still a legit chance for them to shock Real.
Real Madrid are tipped bookies favourites for this game despite a lack of form at 1.66 to win the game in 90 mins while Ajax are the underdog offered at 5.20 with Draw tipped at 4.35. Real Madrid are clear and by far favoured to reach the next round at a measly 1.09 while Ajax are offered to be the ultimate shock at 7.50 to advance. Odds based on Unibet.
Team News
Real Madrid: Sergio Ramos is suspended for Madrid, aside from that they don’t have any serious injury issues and should be able to field a strong line-up.
Ajax: Ajax don’t have any serious injury issues either, they’ll only miss Lisandro Magallan and Carel Elting who aren’t that key for them anyway and they both missed the first leg anyway.
Betting Stats (UCL Based)
*Ajax’s stats include qualifiers
Real Madrid are yet to cover any of their total goal overs at home in Europe this season (0-3), 0%.
Real Madrid have covered 33.3% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in Europe this season (1-2).
Real Madrid average 1.67 bookings per game at home in UCL this season (5 bookings in 3 games).
Real Madrid do not have a lone top scorer in the UCL at home this season as all of their 5 home European goals have been scored by 5 different players (Benzema, Isco, Mariano, Bale and Marcelo).
Real Madrid have covered 33.3% of their Handicaps at home in the UCL this season (1-2).
Real Madrid have covered 33.3% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in UCL this season (1-2).
Ajax have covered 33.3% of their total goal overs away from home in UCL (2-4).
Ajax have covered 33.3% of their total 1st half goal overs away from home in UCL (2-2-2).
Ajax average 2.17 bookings per game away from home in UCL this season (13 bookings in 6 games).
Dusan Tadic is Ajax’s top scorer away from home with 5 European away goals, Huntelaar is 2nd with 3.
Ajax have covered 83.3% of their Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (5-1).
Ajax have covered 50% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (3-1-2).
KICK OFF – 5th March 2019 – 8pm UK Time
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