For the second time ever and first time since 2008 we have an all English Champions League Final as the 1st time finalists Tottenham take on 5 time European champions Liverpool in Madrid!
Both teams are coming into this Final after spectacular Semi Final come backs. Tottenham came back from being 3-0 down on aggregate after the 1st half in Amsterdam against Ajax with 3 2nd half goals all scored by Lucas Moura including the winner right at the death to win the game 2-3 and advance on away goals whereas Liverpool overturned a 3-0 aggregate deficit at Anfield by smashing Barcelona 4-0 despite missing Salah and Firmino.
Overall looking at the run to the Final both sides have seen a lot of adversity. Spurs were very close to being eliminated from the groups in fact they were 6 points off 2nd placed Inter with 3 games left but 2 straight wins and a draw at Nou Camp all earned with late goals in each game managed to see Spurs advance over Inter on H2H. Spurs then destroyed Dortmund 4-0 on aggregate, beat the Premier League champions Manchester City on away goals (4-4) in a tie where they were behind with 20 minutes left in the 2nd leg but Llorente’s goal sent them through and as mentioned they delivered a stunning comeback against Ajax in the Semis. A team that faced an insane amount of adversity, they dealt with injuries, been nearly eliminated in every round bar R16 but they’ve overcome all that and have made it into their first ever Champions League Final!
Tottenham have shown a knack of scoring late goals in the Champions League scoring past the 75th minute in 5 of their last 8 games in the competition totalling 7 goals.
Liverpool have also faced serious adversity on their way to the 2nd straight Final. Liverpool were at one point in a must win situation in the last day of the group stages for them to even advance to the knockouts. Liverpool had to beat Napoli which they did 1-0 to just sneak into the knockouts after an unconvincing group stage phase. Then Liverpool beat Bayern 3-1 on aggregate after a fantastic 1-3 win at the Allianz Arena. Liverpool battered Porto 6-1 on aggregate in the Quarter Finals and then as mentioned made a historical come back against Barcelona.
Liverpool have also been scoring late goals in recent games of the Champions League bagging at least one in the final 15 minutes in 3 of last 5 games in the competition totalling 4 goals.
Looking at form, Tottenham’s overall form isn’t exactly the best. 5 defeats in the Final 8 games and just 2 wins, however one of those wins was that legendary comeback against Ajax. Spurs form has mainly dipped domestically where they have completely slumped their Final to the finish line just about finishing in top 4 by picking up just 11 points in the final 3 months.
However, in Europe their form is different they have been able to deliver whenever they had to with home wins against Man City, away win at Ajax, beating Dortmund home and away does make Spurs European form very solid (4W 0D 2L in the K/O). In the 6 knockout games only 1 of them has really been a poor performance where they lose at home to Ajax which they overturned eventually in the other defeat to City away they definitely performed well despite the 4-3 loss considering most teams get destroyed at the Etihad. Tottenham have scored as many goals in the 6 UCL knockout games (11) as they did in their final 11 league games (11) which is a clear sign that form isn’t an issue in Europe but more so domestically.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s form is absolutely sensational. Just 1 defeat from last 23 games, they’ve finished the season winning 13 of their final 14 games across all competitions. Except the defeat at the Nou Camp they have won every game since 10th March scoring goals for fun (36 in the 14 games), they’ve scored 2+ in all of their 13 wins in this stretch really playing their best football of the season.
The players to watch for Tottenham have to be Son, Lucas and Kane. Son has arguably been their best player of the season, 2nd highest goal scorer with 20 goals across all competitions, Lucas is coming off his best ever performance as a professional just having bagged a hattrick against Ajax to send Spurs into the Final plus he’s also been great this season with 15 goals (tied top scorer in CL for Spurs with 5) and of course Harry Kane is back from injury and we all know the value of Kane for Spurs. Despite the injuries he still has 24 goals across all competitions, one of the best goal scorers in the world, tied top scorer in CL for Spurs with Moura with 5 goals. All 3 of those players are massive threats for goals and should cause Liverpool problems. Don’t sleep on Christian Eriksen either who is a good bet to get an assist given his double digit tally of assists this season.
The players to watch for Liverpool surely have to be the trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino. Salah and Mane both have scored 26 goals each this season while Firmino has 16 across all competitions. Mane is currently in the form of his life having scored 17 goals in his last 22 apps while Salah is also in hot form with 6 goals in last 8 apps. Firmino has been dealing with injuries but is back and ready to go. Also don’t rule out full backs Robertson and Alexander-Arnold as threats since they both have double figure assists this season for them and both are definitely a good bet to get an assist in this final.
Liverpool have owned the H2H with Tottenham over the last few years. Liverpool have only lost to Spurs once in the last 14 H2H meetings (9W 4D). They won both meetings against Spurs this season by the same scoreline 2-1 home and away. Liverpool and Spurs have normally provided entertaining games with last 8 meetings seeing 24 goals (3 per game), both teams scoring in 7 of them and over 2.5 goals occurring in 5 of those games (each of last 4).
Liverpool are offered as favourites on this game at the odds of 1.884 to win in 90 mins with Spurs to win being the underdogs at 4.42 and Draw offered at 3.71. Liverpool are tipped at 1.465 to lift the trophy while Spurs are 2.889 to lift the trophy. Given the domestic standings, Liverpool owning the H2H with Spurs this season it would come as a surprise if they failed to end up as champions, but given what we’ve seen already in this competition this season you just never know what can happen. The odds are based on Pinnacle.
Team News
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane, Davinson Sanchez and Harry Winks are all back available, however Victor Wanyama is doubtful and Ben Davies is ruled out.
Liverpool: Naby Keita is the only absentee for Liverpool. Roberto Firmino is back from injury and will be available to play.
Betting Stats (CL Based) Over/Void/Under, Win/Void/Loss Format
Tottenham have covered 50% of their total goal overs in the UCL this season (6-0-6).
Tottenham have covered 33.3% of their total 1st half goal overs in the UCL this season (4-1-7).
7 of Tottenham’s 12 UCL games this season have had BTTS – Yes (58.3%) . 5 of them had BTTS – No (41.7%).
Tottenham average 2.08 bookings per game in the UCL this season (25 bookings in 12 games).
Tottenham have covered 58.3% of their Handicaps in the UCL this season (7-0-5).
Tottenham have covered just 16.9% of their 1st half Handicaps in the UCL this season (2-1-9). Much better 2nd half team.
Liverpool have covered 33.3% of their total goal overs in the UCL this season (4-1-7).
Liverpool have covered 50% of their total 1st half goal overs in the UCL this season (6-1-5).
Only 4 (33.3%) of Liverpool’s 12 UCL games this season have had BTTS – Yes. 8 of them had BTTS – No (66.7%)
Liverpool average 1.75 bookings per game in the UCL this season (21 bookings in 12 games).
Liverpool have covered 50% of their Handicaps in the UCL this season (6-1-5).
Liverpool have covered 58.3% of their 1st half Handicaps in the UCL this season (7-0-5).
Recent Champions League Finals Stats (90 Mins Play) – This Decade (2010-2018)
Average Number of goals per game – 3.11 (28 Goals in 9 Games)
Over/Under 2.5 – 5 Over (55.6%), 4 Under (44.4%)
Over/Under 3.5 – 4 Over (44.4%), 5 Under (55.6%)
BTTS Yes/No – Yes 8 (88.9%), No 1 (11.1%)
Pre-Match Odds Favourites Lifting the Trophy – 8 (88.9%)
Pre-Match Odds Underdogs Lifting the Trophy – 1 (11.1%)
Average Bookings Per Game – 4.44 – (40 Bookings in 9 Games)
Games to go to Extra Time – 3 (33.3%)
Games to go to Penalties – 2 (22.2%)
Games Decided in 90 Mins – 6 (66.7%)
KICK OFF – 1st June 2019 – 8pm UK Time
*If you’re new to football betting, you can read our Asian Handicap betting guide here.
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