Man Utd host Chelsea in a CRUCIAL match up in the battle for the top 4 in what really is a do or die scenario for the hosts.
Currently looking at the table, Chelsea are 4th on 67 points while Man Utd are 6th on 64 points with Arsenal in between on 66 points. With 3 games left, it’s pretty obvious that neither team can afford to lose especially Man Utd as if they lose their top 4 challenge would basically bet put to bed whereas Chelsea have a bit more leverage in this race and could afford a draw but most likely will go for the win considering Arsenal dropping points isn’t a guarantee despite it happening so often lately.
Neither team are playing their best football at the moment. Man Utd are playing horrendous football in general, they have lost 7 of their last 9 games and are coming off back to back to back defeats being outscored 9:0 by Barcelona, Everton and Man City in the past week. Confidence is currently at an all time low for United and it does seem like the team have worn out lately causing them to underperform.
As for Chelsea, they have looked slightly better but have been very inconsistent. After a good run of form post international break initially, they dropped back again with some poor results losing 2-0 to Liverpool and frustratingly drawing 2-2 with Burnley while in between beating Slavia 4-3 which was a very unconvincing performance by them. Chelsea have struggled defensively lately though going forward they have looked pretty good, probably their best all season long.
Man Utd have been prone to dropping points at Old Trafford this season having won 10 of 17, but drawing 5 and losing 2 in the league here totalling 16 dropped points already. United have only won 3 of their last 8 home games across all competitions and are coming off a 0-2 loss to Manchester City here during the midweek fixture. United are yet to beat a big 6 side at Old Trafford this season (2-2 vs Arsenal, 0-3 vs Spurs, 0-0 vs Liverpool and 0-2 vs Man City). 2 points from 12 against the elite at home is a very worrying record entering this weekend. It hasn’t been quite the fortress it used to be over the years this season and teams have found ways to punish United at OT.
Chelsea have been god awful away from home in 2019. If you exclude Europa League, the Blues have a 2W 0D 6L record with a 4:19 GD away from home in the Premier League and one EFL Cup game against Spurs combined. Chelsea have been extremely leaky defensively on their travels and their only wins came at Cardiff and Fulham who are both relegation threatened sides in 2019 in the BPL. Chelsea were very good away from home in the first half of the season, but something completely changed since 2019 started. The blues have lost to every big 6 side away from home (3-1 Spurs, 1-0 Spurs (Cup), 2-0 Arsenal, 6-0 Man City, 2-0 Liverpool) which totals a 1:12 Goal difference and a 0W 0D 5L record and for Chelsea that is absolutely disastrous and even more concerning than United’s home record against the top sides.
The player to watch for Man Utd is Paul Pogba. He’s been out of form, but so has everyone else going forward. Pogba has been the best goal contributor for United this season with 13G and 9A and the last time he played Chelsea he scored and assisted in the FA Cup. Despite the lack of form, Pogba is that one player that could tear a defence apart if he’s on his game and United will be hoping to get him on his best game here.
For Chelsea it’s obviously Eden Hazard. 29 Goal contributions which is nearly half of Chelsea’s total 59 goals with 16 goals and 13 assists and Eden has been in hot form for the past few games having scored 3 goals and assisted 2 in his last 5 starts. Eden Hazard’s masterclass will be required here if Chelsea want to finally get a good big game away result.
Chelsea and Man Utd have faced each other twice this season and both times at Stamford Bridge. United have been able to outplay Chelsea this season bagging a 2-2 draw in the league only to a late Ross Barkley equalised for Chelsea and then United beat the Blues 0-2 in the FA Cup. It’s been quite a long time since United have had a successful H2H against Chelsea in a single season but this season has finally been the case.
United are also unbeaten in 5 straight games at Old Trafford against Chelsea though 3 of those were draws, United did win each of the last 2 including last season when they dispatched Chelsea 2-1 which was a critical loss for Chelsea as it started their bad run of form which essentially cost them Top 4. The past 5 meetings at OT have only seen 7 goals and only once over 2.5 goals were hit. Not a high scoring fixture in this stadium as of late though it could change considering how poorly both sides have been defensively in recent games.
The bookies have this as a very evenly matched up game with Man Utd to win at 2.70 whereas Chelsea to win is 2.75 with Draw offered at 3.45. This is one of those games where it’s extremely tough to predict and could go either way. United playing at home works to their advantage but their form has been so bad to the point where it could end up being another one of those bad losses, however same can be applied to Chelsea who are slightly better right now, but not exactly playing great either. This is a 50/50 game and whichever teams steps up first will likely come away with all 3 points. The odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Manchester United: Phil Jones and Scott McTominay are both doubtful while Ander Herrera could return to action after missing over a month.
Chelsea: Callum Hudson-Odoi is out with an Achilles injury and will miss the rest of the season, N’Golo Kante is a doubt which could prove to be a very huge blow for the Blues in the midfield. Antonio Rudiger could return however which could be big for Chelsea at the back as they’ve missed his presence in the recent week.
Betting Stats
Man Utd have covered 64.7% of their total goal overs at home in the league this season which is 2nd best in the BPL (11-2-4).
However, Man Utd have only covered 29.4% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in the league this season which is 4th worst (5-4-8). Much more goals tend to fly in the 2nd halves at Old Trafford.
Man Utd average 1.65 bookings per game at home in the league this season (28 bookings in 17 games).
Paul Pogba is Man Utd’s top scorer at home in the league with 10 goals at Old Trafford in the BPL this season.
Man Utd have covered 29.4% of their Handicaps at home in the league this season which is 3rd worst in the BPL (5-1-11).
However, Man Utd have covered 58.8% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in the league this season which is the BEST in the BPL (10-1-6). There clearly is a significant drop off in their 2nd halves at home this season.
Chelsea have covered 70.6% of their total goal overs away from home in the league this season which is 2nd best in the BPL (12-5).
Chelsea have covered 41.2% of their total 1st half goal overs away from home in the league this season (7-2-8).
Chelsea average 1.53 bookings per game away from home in the league this season (26 bookings in 17 games).
Eden Hazard is Chelsea’s top scorer away from home in the league with 5 away league goals for the club this season.
Chelsea have only covered 29.4% of their Handicaps away from home in the league this season which is 3rd worst in the BPL (5-3-9).
Chelsea have covered 41.2% of their 1st Half Handicaps away from home in the league this season (7-10).
KICK OFF – 28th April 2019 – 4:30pm UK Time
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