Golden State Warriors will look to complete the 3-peat and win their 4th title in 5 years as they take on the 1st time participants Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals!
Road to the Finals – Toronto Raptors
1st Round – Beat Orlando Magic 4-1 – In the 1st round the Raptors took on the 7th seeded Orlando Magic (42-40) and were put to test at the start of the series but eventually came away with a win in 5 after a couple of dominant wins to close the series. Raptors started in a typical fashion losing Game 1, but from them on they dominated the series winning Games 2, 4 and 5 by 29, 22 and 19 points also winning Game 3 in a close fashion. Raptors dominated Orlando on the defensive end holding them to under 100 points through games 2-5 and on average throughout that series Toronto held Orlando to 92 ppg completely suffocating them defensively. Kawhi Leonard (27.8 ppg on 55.6% FG 6.6 RPG), Pascal Siakam (22.6 ppg on 53.3% FG 8.4 RPG) mainly stood out in that series while Marc Gasol stood out defensively shutting out Orlando’s start Center Nikola Vucevic holding him to 11 ppg on 36% FG whereas in Regular Season he averaged 21 ppg. To sum it up after a Game 1 loss, Toronto proved their superiority and dominated Orlando the next 4 games winning the series in 5 due to their suffocating defense and great offensive play by Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam.
ECSF – Beat Philadelphia 76ers 4-3 – This was without a doubt the series that Toronto were taken to the absolute maximum. A 7 game series that was decided by the legendary game winner by Kawhi Leonard at the Buzzer in Game 7 to defeat the 76ers 92-90 to win the series. It was an up and down series for Toronto and Philadelphia. Toronto started off with a dominant win but then the 76ers came back with 2 straight wins and being down 1-2 Toronto were for the first time under immense pressure which they overcame winning Games 4 and 5 but then after losing Game 6 by a blowout, the Raptors were pushed to 7. Raptors and Sixers were a very evenly matched series but in the end as mentioned Toronto prevailed thanks to Leonard’s game winner in G7.
Raptors again were very good defensively holding Philly to 98.1 point per game throughout the series and holding them under 100 in 5 of the 7 games. Kawhi Leonard again dominated offensively in the series averaging an increased 34.7 points per game on 53% shooting yet again extremely efficient. Kawhi dropped two 40+ point games including 41 in Game 7 and had a 39 point game too. He only scored under 30 twice in the 7 games. Pascal Siakam also had a solid series averaging 19.4 ppg and 6.4 rpg while defensively Raptors bigs again delivered holding the 76ers star man Joel Embiid to 17.6 points per game on 37% shooting. Whether it’s Gasol, Ibaka or Siakam the Raptors bigs have been very solid defensively against star Centers.
ECF – Beat Milwaukee Bucks 4-2 – A series where many written the Raptors off at one point during it. Starting the series as big underdogs and being down 2-0 in the series to start, the Raptors were in huge trouble. However coming back home and winning Game 3 after OT turned everything around. Raptors went on to win Games 4, 5 and 6 becoming the first team to beat Milwaukee 4 straight times this year. Raptors again delivered with their exceptional defensive display holding Milwaukee to 106.6 points per game which was even lower in the final 3 games which put Toronto to the Finals holding Milwaukee to 102, 99 and 94 points despite them being one of the most explosive teams in the league through Games 2-4.
It was definitely the best series played by Toronto as a whole team. Kawhi still dominated averaging 29.8 points per game 9.5 rebounds per game and 4.3 assists per game, however it wasn’t just him who stepped up. Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol upped their games offensively and most importantly Kyle Lowry stepped up big time putting up 19.2 points per game with 5 rebounds and 5 assists as well while playing great defense and making crucial plays for Toronto to win. Pascal Siakam actually had his worst series putting up 14.5 ppg on just 40% shooting, but the others really stepped up for Toronto. Raptors bench went from averaging 16.9 points per game against the 76ers to 32.2 points per game against Milwaukee and if they do want to win the Finals, their bench is going to be absolutely crucial because it makes the team so much better when they’re rolling.
Summary: Raptors have had a great run, beating a 51 win and a 60 win team on their way to the Final. Raptors have done it due to the greatness of Kawhi Leonard who is averaging over 30 points per game overall and has had 12 30 point games in the run far. Raptors others have shown inconsistency on offense but in the most crucial moments guys like VanVleet, Powell, Gasol, Lowry, Ibaka, Siakam and everyone else have shown up. Raptors have dealt under pressure multiple times coming back from 2-1 down against the 76ers, winning a Game 7 against them, coming back from 2-0 down against Milwaukee and winning the close out game despite being down by 15 at one point. It’s a team of high character led by one of the best players in the league and should absolutely believe that they can win it all now.
Road to the Finals – Golden State Warriors
1st Round – Beat Los Angeles Clippers 4-2 – A series that lasted longer than many expected. Warriors were expected to sweep the Clippers, however the team from LA were more competitive than expected, in fact some say they gave the toughest challenge for the Warriors so far. Both Warriors losses came at Oracle Arena, however they won all 3 at Staples Center. Kevin Durant was absolutely incredible in that series averaging 35 points per game (41.5 ppg in Games 3-6), Warriors offense didn’t really have any issues averaging 124.5 points per game, however defensively they weren’t quite as great giving up 114.6 points per game. Warriors bench was mostly the issue in that series as they were outscored 25-55 on average per game, however the star power of Durant, Curry, Klay, Green proved to be enough for them to win the series. Though there were issues with effort from time to time, the Warriors did get the job done due to their insane star power.
WCSF – Beat Houston Rockets 4-2 – A series that we truly believe was the toughest for the Warriors and at one point where it looked like they may not win at all. Warriors started with 2 wins at home but then Rockets came back to tie it 2-2. Game 5 was when it started to look that Golden State are in trouble when Kevin Durant went out with an injury after playing his best basketball ever since joining the Warriors and he hasn’t played ever since. However, Golden State overcame thanks to everyone else stepping up. Draymond, Curry and Klay hitting clutch shots to win Game 5 and then stealing Game 6 in Houston to win the series 4-2 thanks to a historical 2nd half performance by Steph Curry when he scored 33 points in the half alone to win the series.
In the series against Houston, Warriors effort definitely had risen holding them to 109.8 points per game throughout putting in a much more solid defensive effort. Although offensively they fell to 111.6 points per game mainly due to playing a tougher defensive squad and slower pace, the Warriors were still very good on both ends whether Durant was playing or not. Golden State’s bench didn’t provide much scoring again at just 18 points per game, but did show up in Game 6. Mostly again, Curry, Klay, Durant (when healthy) and Draymond came through in the biggest moments proving the Warriors star power being too much in the end.
ECF – Beat Portland Trail-Blazers 4-0 – A series that was tougher than the result looks, but Warriors well and truly showed their greatness against the Trail-Blazers. Despite missing Cousins and Durant, the Warriors swept the Conference Finals. In this series we saw why Golden State exactly went 73-9 in 2016 before Durant arrived. Steph Curry went back to his old self averaging 36.5 points per game scoring 36+ in every game and becoming the highest scorer in an NBA Playoff series that resulted with a sweep scoring 146 points in total, Klay Thompson put up 21.5 points per game and Draymond Green was looking like the Green of old putting up 16/11/8 throughout the series including having 2 triple doubles. Also the Warriors bench showed up upping their scoring to 32.5 points per game with guys like Cook, Jerebko, McKinnie, Looney and Livingston stepping up when counted on. With 2 stars out, the Warriors remaining stars elevated their game and the bench improved showing that this team is still clearly the best in the league despite missing Kevin Durant.
Offensively, the Warriors did not miss a beat putting up 114.7 points per game while defensively they had their best defensive series improving even more after the Houston series holding Portland to 105.2 points per game. Warriors also came back from 17 points down in every game through 2-4 further showing their championship pedigree and how ridiculously deep they are. Star power again came through with a little bit of help from the bench which they didn’t have much of right until the WCF.
Summary: Warriors improved by every round throughout the Playoffs this year. Started off slowly against the Clippers, but then beating Houston in 6 and beating Portland in 4 proved that the Warriors are just every bit as great as they are said to be. Despite missing Kevin Durant who started the Playoffs on a historical pace, the Warriors did not miss a single beat in fact they won all 5 games without him. Defensively they got better and better throughout the Playoffs while offensively continuing to be great thanks to Curry, Thompson and Green all elevating their game with the increased roles the Warriors looked like they did back in 2016 when they won 73 games. Whether Durant is healthy or not, this Warriors squad proved to be every bit as dangerous in either situation (31-1 in last 32 games when Curry plays and he doesn’t).
Finals MVP Candidates
Stephen Curry: Since Warriors are the favourites, KD could be out for the Finals, Steph Curry becomes the favourites to win this award. Curry is still yet to win the Finals MVP despite winning 3 rings Iguodala and Durant has won the Finals MVP awards in this run although Steph has definitely been great in the Finals during all those runs averaging 25/5/6 in 2015, 27/8/9 in 2017 and 27/6/7 last year. Curry has been absolutely amazing since Durant went out with an injury this year averaging 36/8/7 in the 5 games without him scoring 33 points at least in each game. With Durant questionable to play and Curry playing the way he’s doing right now and Warriors being favourites there is no doubt that Steph is the favourite to win FMVP. Curry to win the Finals MVP is tipped at 1.65 at TonyBet. Clear and by far favourite. Expect a very motivated Steph.
Kawhi Leonard: Toronto Raptors superstar is the 2nd favourite to win this award and clear and by far 1st favourite for the Raptors to win. Kawhi has been legendary throughout the Playoffs, he’s averaging 31/9/4 throughout the run putting up 12 30 point games in the run which is tied 2nd most in NBA History in the Playoffs by a player before the Finals. Kawhi has dominated on both ends of the floor and clearly will have to continue to do so if the Raptors want to have a chance. Let’s not also forget that Leonard did get injured against Golden State in 2017 and will definitely be looking for revenge, he has had some big time games against the Warriors in his career and we’ll likely see him have a big Finals performance. Kawhi to win Finals MVP on TonyBet is offered at 3.60, a very valuable bet if you think Toronto will win the Finals.
Draymond Green: Draymond is the heart and soul of the Warriors. Chances of him winning Finals MVP aren’t the greatest but if you remember the last time Golden State played in the Finals without Durant, he was their best player and probably would’ve won the Award had they beat Cleveland in 2016. Draymond’s impact of the game is massive and with increased role he is very capable of taking this award. Draymond may not be the most explosive scorer, but his rebounding, playmaking and defense are all key factors in the Warriors play. He was incredible against Portland averaging 16/11/8 posting 2 triple doubles in the run and if by any chance Steph and Klay don’t play as great then Draymond winning Finals MVP could be a real possibility like in 2016. Draymond is offered at a long shot 9.50 to win Finals MVP on TonyBet.
Klay Thompson: Well Klay has never really come close to winning Finals MVP before, but we all know how good Klay is when he gets hot. Klay Thompson has been very good in the past few games, his ability to score in bunches and defend makes him a capable candidate of winning this award. If Klay gets hot throughout this series and averages high scoring numbers while locking up on defense then he definitely is capable of snatching Finals MVP. Klay to win Finals MVP is also offered at 9.50 like Draymond Green.
Kevin Durant: This is only if Durant is healthy. Durant has to be back by Game 2 the latest if he really wants this award. Not much to say about KD, he won Finals MVP in each of last 2 seasons and has been historically great in this post season. If he returns in time he will likely become one of the favourites but for now given his uncertain health he is not very likely to win this award. Offered at 13.00 to win FMVP on TonyBet.
Pascal Siakam: An unlikely player, but he is Toronto’s 2nd highest scorer throughout the post season putting up 18.7 points per game. It’s very unlikely that Siakam will win Finals MVP over Kawhi if Toronto win the title since he just isn’t on that level yet as a player, but you never know he is the teams 2nd favourite to win the award offered at a very long shot odds 36.00 on TonyBet. Siakam will have to play a series of his career for him to win the award.
Kyle Lowry: Also very unlikely, but like Draymond Green for the Warriors, Lowry is the heart and soul of the Raptors. He may not be consistent scoring but he has the capability to score 20 a night while dishing out dimes and playing great defense which we’ve seen across the whole post season so far. If Lowry continues to elevate his game by every round like he’s done and makes the Finals uncomfortable for Steph Curry defensively then he could definitely make noise for Finals MVP award though again outplaying Kawhi is going to be near impossible if Toronto win the title and just like Siakam he is tipped at a very long shot odds at 40.00.
Keys to Win the series
Golden State Warriors
Steph and Klay have to stay hot: With Durant and Cousins both doubtful, it’s safe to say that the two star guards have to continue to score at high rate. Curry put up 36.5 points per game while Klay put up 21.5 points per game combining for 58 points a game between the two in the Conference Finals. Warriors bench may have stepped up in the WCF, but given their play overall in the post season you just never know and whether Green and Iguodala will continue to score 12-15 points per game is also questionable so Klay and Steph will have to carry the load of the scoring. Their 58 points per game in WCF was over 50% of teams total points per game clearly proving their importance when it comes to scoring. Expect over 25 ppg from both and either one to score over 30 in this series for Golden State to win.
Someone else have to score: Again the Warriors will need a consistent 3rd option. So far Draymond Green and Iguodala have been delivering scoring over double figures per game since Durant went out. Curry and Klay will obviously score but in case they get cold for certain games which can always happen, the others will need to step up offensively.
Toronto Raptors
Continue to be Suffocating on Defense: Given that Toronto are facing an explosive offense, their calling card which is Defense have to step it up big time again. They have done great limiting offenses with a lot of talent so far in this post season shutting down Philadelphia and keeping Milwaukee quiet, but this may be the toughest task. Lowry has to continue to be a pest, Green Kawhi Gasol Ibaka are all great defenders and if Toronto want to bring the trophy home they will all have to be on their game trying to stop this powerhouse Golden State offense. Raptors are 2nd in DEF RTG throughout this post season only behind the Bucks so it’s clear that it’s one of the main reasons they have got to the Finals.
Bench has to stay hot: Raptors bench has been inconsistent throughout this post season and it simply cannot happen in the Finals. Raptors bench was incredible in the Conference Finals, arguably the biggest key to winning the series thanks to big time performances from guys like Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and even Serge Ibaka from time to time. Raptors bench is stronger than Golden State’s on paper and could prove to be a huge key for Toronto if they were to win. We saw how much Toronto struggled when the bench was quiet against Philadelphia where they only came through with a buzzer beater and that can’t happen against Golden State because if the bench goes cold Toronto simply won’t win.
Regular Season H2H
Raptors swept the season series this year against the Warriors 2-0 doing it so for the first time since the 2001-02 season. The game in Toronto was a crazy one as Toronto beat Golden State 131-128 after OT with Kawhi and Durant putting on a show with Kawhi scoring 37 points and Durant putting a ridiculous 51. Toronto then won at Oracle 113-93 despite Leonard not playing. Both match ups have not had teams at full strength with Curry missing the first meeting and Leonard missing the 2nd meeting so we haven’t really gotten to see these teams against each other at full health although it may seem to be the case again at the start of the Finals.
Series Prediction
This is going to be a great series. Toronto are not going to be no pushover and with home court at hand they may have a legitimate shot of winning. However, Golden State’s championship pedigree and star power of Klay, Curry, Green and then potentially Durant and Cousins coming back later in the Finals will be too much. This series will go to 6 games Raptors will put up a fight and Kawhi Leonard will be great, however the Warriors will come away with a 3 peat victory and Steph Curry will win that eluded Finals MVP award. Golden State are simply the better team here they are ridiculously explosive on offense and that will be the deciding factor in the end.
Series Odds (TonyBet)
Raptors To Win Title – 3.50
Warriors To Win Title – 1.35
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