NFL MVP Race 2025: Who’s Leading the Betting Markets?

As the 2025 NFL season nears kickoff, the MVP race is already one of the hottest betting topics in the league. History favors quarterbacks, and this season is no different. While non-QBs continue to dazzle fans and analysts alike, MVP voters stick to the pattern: elite QB play on elite teams.

With sportsbooks narrowing the field to signal-callers from winning franchises, value lies not just in numbers but in a team’s win potential. Let’s break down the leading contenders and uncover a few quarterbacks flying under the radar.

Quarterbacks Still Rule the MVP Realm

Since Adrian Peterson’s 2,000-yard season in 2012, no non-quarterback has taken home the trophy. Twelve straight quarterbacks have won, with Josh Allen being the most recent.

Despite the emergence of stars like Tyreek Hill, Micah Parsons, and Ja'Marr Chase, none have come close enough to break the quarterback monopoly. Even Saquon Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing campaign failed to earn him the title.

There’s a simple truth at play here: MVP winners rack up passing touchdowns while leading double-digit win teams. Voters notice highlight plays, but they cast ballots based on production and wins. Just like fans who bet on NFL games, voters are drawn to quarterbacks who consistently deliver. With that in mind, let’s look at this year’s front-runners and some value plays that could pay off big.

The Big Four: Favorites to Watch

These elite quarterbacks combine consistent production, playoff-caliber teams, and proven track records that make them the frontrunners entering 2025.

Lamar Jackson (+550)

Lamar Jackson is already a two-time MVP and nearly took home his third last year. He led the NFL in passer rating, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate while adding 915 rushing yards. Jackson's dual-threat ability remains unmatched.

The Ravens also just added DeAndre Hopkins to an already talented receiving group that includes Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman.

The Ravens posted the NFL’s highest explosive pass rate last season, and Jackson was the catalyst. If he remains healthy and Baltimore wins the AFC North, he’ll remain the favorite through January.

Josh Allen (+600)

As the reigning MVP, Allen edged out Jackson last year in what was essentially a coin flip. Allen’s powerful arm and running ability kept the Bills' offense unpredictable and dangerous.

With a solid core returning and playoff expectations still high, Allen has the narrative and numbers to repeat.

Joe Burrow (+600)

Burrow is the most bet-on player in MVP futures. He led the league in completions, yards, touchdowns, and yards per game last season. Despite missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record, he finished fourth in MVP voting and took home Comeback Player of the Year.

Cincinnati has since bolstered its defense and retained both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Oddsmakers expect a stronger season from the Bengals, with their win total juiced to the over at 9.5.

If they eclipse 11 wins, Burrow becomes the top threat to dethrone Jackson. According to FanDuel NFL player trends, the sharp money is already on “Joey B,” making him a high-upside play.

Patrick Mahomes (+650)

Mahomes has won two MVPs and remains the league’s most complete passer. His Chiefs are perennial contenders, and even with slight roster turnover, Mahomes always adapts.

As long as Kansas City wins 12-plus games, Mahomes will be in the mix. His current odds reflect voter fatigue more than a drop in performance.

Under-the-Radar QBs Offering Betting Value

Beyond the marquee names, a handful of quarterbacks offer intriguing upside at longer odds. These breakout candidates could deliver big returns, especially if their teams exceed expectations.

Justin Herbert (+2000)

Herbert quietly had one of the most efficient seasons in 2024, throwing only three picks and producing the second-best TD-to-INT ratio behind Lamar Jackson. His deep-ball accuracy was elite, yet his receivers led the league in drop rate.

The Chargers drafted WR Tre Harris and retooled the offensive strategy under head coach Jim Harbaugh. With Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton creating a ground-and-pound threat, defenses will be forced to respect the run, opening passing lanes for Herbert.

If Los Angeles surpasses 10 wins, Herbert becomes a legitimate dark horse for MVP.

Jordan Love (+2500)

Love flashed MVP potential in 2024, ranking in the top 10 for most advanced passing metrics. However, inconsistency and injuries around him capped his production. Green Bay addressed those weaknesses by drafting receivers Matthew Golden and Savion Williams, and signing veteran lineman Aaron Banks.

Now with a deep offense and continuity under center, Love is poised for a breakout. If he leads the Packers to a 10+ win season, his field-stretching play style and recent development make him a strong long-shot bet.

MVP Odds Board: The Current Landscape

        Lamar Jackson: +550,

        Josh Allen: +600,

        Joe Burrow: +600,

        Patrick Mahomes: +650,

        Jayden Daniels: +850,

        Justin Herbert: +2000,

        Jalen Hurts: +2000,

        CJ Stroud: +2500,

        Jordan Love: +2500,

        Brock Purdy: +2800,

  Jared Goff: +3000.

Sportsbooks are adjusting early. As Week 1 approaches, these lines will tighten. The sooner bettors lock in favorable odds, the better the return potential.

Can Non-QBs Crash the Party?

Several non-quarterbacks have cracked the MVP voting top 10 in recent seasons, including Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, and Micah Parsons. Still, none have gained true traction in the race. Barkley’s third-place finish last season came after a historic year. It still wasn’t enough.

Unless a wide receiver or edge rusher posts something otherworldly, say, 2,000 receiving yards or 25 sacks, the odds remain stacked against them. This is, and will continue to be, a quarterback’s award.

What History Teaches Us

Since 2010, only one MVP winner has come from a team with fewer than 12 wins: Matt Ryan in 2016. High win totals and strong touchdown production are the proven recipe. That’s why players on fringe playoff teams, regardless of talent, face an uphill climb.

It also explains why MVPs don’t emerge from rebuilding franchises. This year, only 17 teams entered the season with Super Bowl odds shorter than 30-1. That narrows the realistic MVP pool significantly.

Navigating the MVP Market

Savvy bettors know timing is everything. Odds will shift rapidly once the season begins. Injuries, standout games, and team performance can alter the MVP landscape overnight. Sportsbooks often refund season-ending injury bets, but early wagers still hold the most value.

Follow the metrics, watch team momentum, and keep an eye on offensive schemes. A QB with a revamped supporting cast and favorable schedule can jump up the board fast.

*Content reflects information and odds available as of 31/07/2025; subject to change. We do not guarantee the success of any betting strategy, tip, or advice. Users are solely responsible for their betting decisions.