Bets on NFL games allow die-hard fans to profit from their interest in the league. Football/NFL betting is a great way to make money, but you'll need to do more than study the team's approach to be successful. Understanding the game's rules and the relative merits of the various players and teams is not enough to guarantee a profit when betting on it.
Take the Underdog Bet
It's best to go against conventional wisdom when evaluating a team's chances of winning. That's why you should seek out a team that was the betting favorite the week before but ended up losing. Since they are the underdogs this week, the odds of them winning are low at the bookmakers.
Nonetheless, if the team is exceptional, like the Denver Broncos of 2013, they will likely win this week's game. The ultimate decision on this will rely on the circumstances surrounding the team's loss the previous week, such as whether or not an injury played a role.
Can you see the Broncos' situation if they lost Wes Welker or, God forbid, Peyton was hurt again? Both of these guys have a different impact on the direction and capability of this club.
Methods of Defense
One can also foretell the winning team by analyzing the sides' respective game plans. A club with a strong defense has a better chance of winning when pitted against an offense with similar strengths. You can boost your chances of winning big by wagering on the defensive team, especially if they are underdogs.
Nonetheless, in 2013, there were no imposing defensive units in the NFL. The Ravens, who recently saw Ray Lewis announce his retirement, used to boast a formidable defense, but judging by their play this season, they aren't nearly as effective as they once were. Not great, but not bad either, especially with Terrell Suggs and other top defensive players on the roster.
Don't Bet on the Streak
Finding teams who have shown a winning or losing streak is another method of making predictions. When a team has a winning or losing streak of three games, bet against the streak. Similarly, if a team is on a winning streak, oddsmakers favor that club and give you a higher value if you bet against a losing squad.
Specifically, the New Orleans Saints and the Denver Broncos meet the criteria. Both teams are off to a good start, and with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning at quarterback, that trend might easily continue.
Home Underdog
You can also win your bets in the NFL by betting on the home underdog. It's more likely that the underdog will win when playing on its ground. The home team usually has an advantage due to the loyal support they receive from the audience. For example, since there are only 11 players on the field at any given moment in the NFL, the home team can be considered the defense's offense's 12th man.
Bets on the point spread can be placed even if you think the underdog team will lose the game outright since their opponent is much stronger than they are. This is especially true if the team you think will lose the Seattle Seahawks or the Indianapolis Colts.
Spoiler Factor
When betting on a game between two teams, the public often sides with the club that needs a win to make the playoffs and the team that is mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. The team with nothing to lose, the spoiler squad, has the potential to outperform the other teams by taking more significant risks. This is contingent upon the level of overall competition between the two teams.
Rumors
A school of thought among NFL gamblers speculates that acting on rumor-based information is a losing strategy. They say the potential for financial losses is bigger if the rumor is incorrect. However, when the rumor is disregarded, the odds are even; thus, betting on it is the smart course of action. If the rumor turns out to be true, the payoff will be large and devastating, but the risk of being wrong is about the same as under normal circumstances.
The Sandwich Game Theory
Knowing a team's strengths and winning streak can be powerful when betting on the NFL. For example, the Sandwich Game hypothesis states that a strong team is less likely to perform well in the midweek between games against two strong opponents. It can significantly improve one's winning prospects by betting against the favorite in their lunch game. If the bookmakers had given better odds against the favorite, the winnings would have been even higher.
Risk Spreading
Someone who bets on NFL games can increase their chances of ending the season in the black by spreading their money around and betting on several games.
Even though it's common knowledge that professional gamblers rarely make a handful of wagers per season, this approach may not yield the best results for the average bettor. The odds-on favorites can defeat with only one unexpected setback, such as poor weather, an injury, or a poor choice.
Any bettor who puts a sizable wager on that game will lose a lot of money if this happens. Instead, one might boost their odds of having a successful wagering strategy in this or any other NFL season by putting a succession of smaller wagers.
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But, if you're going to gamble, do so in a responsible manner. As a serious social problem, problem gambling cannot be ignored. Please get help right away if you suspect you have a problem. Also, for those who don't have a gambling issue but want to try their luck for fun with money they can afford to lose. Start immediately, or read more articles about sports betting to brush up on your expertise.
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