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UEFA CL: Valencia v Manchester United Match Betting Preview

Manchester United will seek to win their group as they travel to an already eliminated Valencia this Wednesday night. Mourinho’s men secured qualification to the knockouts with a last minute win against the Young Boys meaning they can’t get eliminated by losing here, however they can still get 1st place. Man Utd are currently 2 pts behind Juve so the chances look slim considering they’d need Young Boys to grab something against the Italian giants therefore a win may not be enough but it would be a good momentum builder. Man Utd are coming off an impressive and a much needed 4-1 win against Fulham so they will fancy their chances against Valencia who have underperformed themselves this season, they can’t fall below or move above 3rd. It’s really a game for both sides to build some form and gain some momentum. The first game ended in a bore 0-0 draw between these sides and we’ll be hoping for something better here for sure.

Key Facts

18 of 22 Valencia’s games this season in all competitions seen under 2.5 goals. 4 of 5 UCL games that Valencia were involved in had under 2.5 goals. Not entertainers.

Valencia have drawn 11 of their 22 games in all competitions this season.

Valencia have only scored 19 goals in 22 games this season which is just under a goal per game. Woeful.

Valencia have only won 3 of their 9 home games this season. 4D 2L.

Valencia have only won 1 of their last 4 games and it was only against a Spanish Segunda B team Ebro 1-0. They lost the other 2 (Real Madrid, Juventus) and drew with Sevilla. Not showing good form.

On average there are just 1.8 goals scored in Valencia’s Champions League games this season.

Valencia have failed to score against Man Utd and Juventus (twice) this season. All of their 4 goals came against the poorest team in the group in Young Boys.

Valencia average 3.8 bookings per game in the Champions League. Seen 19 bookings in 5 games.

Santi Mina has scored 6 goals in his last 7 apps for Valencia, however he’s been scoreless in 3 straight.

Valencia have lost 4 of their last 6 Champions League games at home. 2W.

Man Utd have a 5W 2D 3L away record in all competitions this season. They’ve performed better away from home in Europe winning both away games (0-3 at Young boys and 1-2 at Juventus).

Man Utd have only managed 5 clean sheets in 22 games in all competitions, however they’ve kept 3 in 5 UCL games only conceding a total of 2 goals (both against Juventus). Defensively better in Europe.

Despite being so over-ish in Domestic competition, Man Utd games only average 1.6 goals per game in the Champions League. 2 overs 3 unders (2.5 total). Both overs were away from home however.

Man Utd only average 1.6 bookings per game in the Champions League only seeing 8 bookings in 5 games.

Anthony Martial has scored 7 goals in his last 11 apps for Man Utd and is their top scorer across all competitions this season.

Man Utd have only lost 1 of their last 9 competitive games. 5W 3D.

Man Utd have faced Valencia in the Champions League 7 times since 1999 and 6 of those games had under 2.5 goals. Boring fixture.

Man Utd have not lost in any of their last 3 visits to Valencia. Two of those were 0-0 draws and Man Utd won the other fixture 0-1.

Team News

Valencia: Gameiro and Murillo both missed the weekend’s game against Sevilla and could be out again here. Defender Gabriel Paulista picked up an injury against Sevilla and is also on a doubtful list and will likely be replaced by Diakhaby who replaced him and actually scored in that game. Furthermore, left back Jose Gaya is suspended. Otherwise everyone is available. Expect a strong team out there with some rotation.

Manchester United: Man Utd have a slight injury crisis with Lindelof, Darmian, Sanchez, Shaw, Smalling and the season’s star man Martial all either being injured or doubtful. Eric Bailly did return to training however and could potentially fill in for Smalling at the CB. Jose Mourinho did indicate that Paul Pogba is set to return to the starting line-up after missing the last couple of games by being benched so this is a huge opportunity for him to earn back the starting spot. With the Sunday clash against Liverpool ahead, it is anticipated that most 1st team players are going to be rested here and Jose will put out a second string line-up despite Man Utd still having a chance to get 1st place, but really looking at it the Sunday’s game is far more important and it’s understandable why Jose would rotate his whole side.

Betting Tips and Predictions

Valencia is the right team to back here looking at the current situation. The reason for that is what lies ahead for Man Utd and the injury list that they’ve got. United’s focus is clearly on Sunday right now and with multiple 1st team players either being out with injuries or likely being put on the bench or not in the team at all, this really is Valencia’s game to lose. Despite Valencia not playing for anything, this is their last UCL game at Mestalla and in general this season and they will try to give the fans a win whereas United are more than likely going to turn their focus on the next game. Valencia to win is priced at 2.52 right now. The other pick for the game is under 2.5 goals at 1.88. As we’ve mentioned, Valencia are one of the most under-ish clubs in the world if not the most under-ish and with United not really having high scoring games in Europe themselves, this can only be a low scoring game. The first game ended 0-0 and in general when these sides meet there’s rarely any goals. BTTS – No at 2.12 is also worth the look, good odds there. The final pick is under 3.5 cards at 2.18 since this really is a meaningless game it’s hard to expect rash tackles, time wasting etc. Will likely be a clean game. Our prediction is a 1-0/2-0 win for Valencia here.

Match Odds (Unibet)

Valencia Win – 2.52

Draw – 3.40

Manchester United Win – 3.00

KICK OFF – 12th December 2018 – 8pm UK Time