FIFA WORLD CUP 2018 – France vs Croatia PREVIEW (FINAL)
THIS IS IT! The pinnacle of the World Cup, THE FINAL! We have one time world and two time European champions France facing Croatia who are in their first ever major final. This is the third world cup final in 20 years for France and their second major final in back to back tournaments. While Croatia have finally broken through with their greatest ever achievement in reaching the final. Will France prove to be too much or will Croatia pull off one of the best dark horse team stories in this tournament?
FRANCE
Its been a fantastic tournament for France. A team who started it off with full of criticism by the media, have built themselves up and have peaked at the right time playing some of the best football of the tournament. All around France have just shown fantastic form, their backline has played well, their midfield has probably been the most impressive in this tournament and their front 3 have played well to, especially Mbappe and Griezmann who have played better and better as the stakes got higher which is something their prone to doing so. Any weaknesses that France showed at the start of the tournament have vanished especially their full back play, Pavard and Lucas have really made a name for themselves in these big matches.
Now let’s have a look at France’s road to the FINAL. They started off by topping their group after beating Australia 2-1, Peru 1-0 and drawing Denmark 0-0. Although France have put up a good win % in the group stages, they faced a lot of criticism, they didn’t play well but digged out results which worried the fans and the media because of the level of the competition they faced. They weren’t the best of teams and France were expected to blow them away, but they really beat both Australia and Peru by luck and deflections while putting in poor performances and pretty much being outplayed and their performance against Denmark was just horrific although it was a meaningless game and both teams most likely just settled for that result to advance.
However, France responded in the knockouts playing a completely different brand of football. France firstly beat Argentina in R16. It was a game where France once again faced pressure at one point being down 1-2, but they responded and won 4-3. It was the first performance from France where we looked at and said they were fluent, attack clicked, Mbappe was out of his world in that game and although they conceded 3 goals only one of them was at fault from their defending because the other two was a world class finish by Di Maria and a deflection got the other goal for Argentina. It was a performance from France which really kicked their campaign off.
In the quarter finals France faced Uruguay. It was probably France’s best performance at that point of the tournament. They made sure to completely shut out Uruguay’s attack with Cavani injured and Suarez pretty much being taken out of the game by the French defence. France played solid possession football and waited for their opportunities to pick up the win. Eventually, Varane connected from a set piece and then a shot from Griezmann that was mishandled by Muslera meant that France came away as 2-0 winners. It was a really good win because Uruguay as a whole have been one of the best organised sides of the tournament and France pretty much took them apart and defeated them comfortably to set up a semi final with Belgium.
In the Semi Final we saw France being a team that played on the back foot. It was a very good professional all around performance. Defensively it was their best of the tournament, they shut out Belgium’s attack, de Bruyne and Lukaku especially struggled while Hazard didn’t really get any clear cut opportunities. Whenever Belgium created something, Lloris came to the rescue. It was a tactical battle as most big major tournament games are, France beat Belgium by scoring from a set piece again thanks to Umtiti’s header from a corner and once they took the lead, France did not allow Belgium into the game. The back four in general was absolutely world class, midfield was great as usual outplaying Belgium’s midfield while Mbappe and Griezmann made sure to run defenders ragged again. All around it was the best performance by France given the level of the opponent, France shutting out Belgium’s attack was one of the most impressive things we’ve seen in this tournament.
To summarise this whole ride, France have pretty much been unbeatable at the back other than the Argentina game. Lloris has been probably the best keeper in the tournament, Umtiti and Varane have been unbreakable, while their full backs have proved to overcome their early tournament struggles and have settled in very well giving France options going forward while defending really well. The midfield trio of Matuidi Kante and Pogba has been one of the most impressive midfields, Kante and Matuidi have been snuffing out attacks while Pogba has dominated in a free attacking role. Going forward, you’d have to say Mbappe has been the most impressive player in the French side, at the young age of 19 he’s not shown any signs of big moment jitters and has played out of his mind, his pace has been a massive problem for opponents. Griezmann’s slow start to the tournament didn’t last as he scored goals and played well in the knockouts as he always does. It’s been a great tournament by France where they improved as a whole as the games got bigger, now going into the Final, they will hope to put away what happened in 2006 and 2016 by winning their second world cup. They’re the rightly favoured side and these players believe it’s their time to be remembered as WORLD CHAMPIONS!
CROATIA
It’s already been mentioned, this is the first ever major tournament Final for Croatia and its none other but the world cup Final. The nation of a population of 4 million, Croatia have had quite the ride in this tournament. They’ve shown the never quit attitude, a team who trailed in every knockout game and pulled out as winners, a team who faced TWO penalty shootouts and they have overcame everything. Mentally, Croatia have overcame the barrier they faced over the years in major tournaments not being able to advance further than Round of 16 and this golden generation have finally broke through during the world cup this year. Now, it’s the Final step for them, they lost to France in the 1998 world cup Semi Final and they have a chance to get their revenge for the heartbreak 20 years ago. The question is how much do they truly have in them left after playing THREE extra times.
In this world cup, Croatia started off with topping the group of death. Croatia won the opener against Nigeria 2-0, then beat Argentina 3-0 and finally ended up with a 2-1 win over Iceland. They played their best football in the group stages, really set themselves high standards after those performances turning themselves from dark horses into true title contenders, they definitely played great and scored a lot of goals.
In the knockouts however, Croatia had moments of uncertainty. They faced a lot of pressure in the knockouts, they had to dig deep and grind out results facing a deficit in each game, but what we have learnt in the knockouts is that this team have been mentally really strong. In R16, Croatia faced Denmark, they got hit with a setback in the 1st minute when they conceded a goal but they responded instantly 3 minutes later. In that game the teams would go on to cancel each other out, Croatia had a penalty saved just before the shootout and it seemed like Denmark had the momentum. However, thanks to top notch goalkeeping by Subasic, Croatia held Denmark off in the penalty shootout winning it 3-2 which was a true mental breaker for them and a first knockout win in national football since 1998 (their greatest world cup before this year).
In the quarter finals, Croatia were tested all the way to the limit again by the host nation Russia. It was a game where Croatia once again were hit with setbacks and responded every time. First they went 1-0 down and hit back 7 minutes later, then Croatia took the lead in extra time and got pegged back with 5 minutes to go which led to a penalty shootout. Croatia once again showed good mental strength, had a little bit of luck and beat not only Russia but their raucous crowd in the penalty shootout. It was another game where Croatia did not look their best, faced setbacks and overcame all of that to get into the semi final to set themselves a game with England.
In the Semis, Croatia put in what we can probably all agree on their best performance not only in the knockouts, but in the tournament overall. Croatia benefited from the fact that England weren’t a physical side like Russia or Denmark which enabled them to play their football more freely. Croatia got hit with a setback within 5 minutes conceding a goal to Trippier, but they didn’t waver. Croatia stayed patient, they worked hard and eventually found the right cross from which Perisic connected to equalise and send the game to extra time. From the point where Croatia tied the game, they dominated, they mentally looked stronger than England and a moment of sleepiness at the back by Stones, led to Mandzukic being through one on one with Pickford and put it away giving Croatia the 2-1 lead which they would hold on to. The man who really stood out was Vrsaljko, a player who was ruled out two days before the game but got himself game ready and took part, not only setting up the first goal but playing great and having himself a goal line clearance too to deny England a goal to retake the lead. Croatia all around just outplayed England, took Kane out of the game and took their chances to reach their first ever World Cup FINAL.
To summarise this ride for Croatia. Their biggest strengths have to be the ability to bounce back. Mentally this team have finally got it right, they responded to every deficit they faced, won two penalty shootouts and outplayed pretty much every team they played. Croatia’s midfield have looked very good especially Modric and Rakitic, their wing play with Perisic and Rebic have been very tough to stop and they’ve scored quite a lot of goals (12 in total). Croatia’s one weakness has to be the set piece defending. Most of the goals that Croatia have conceded have either came from a corner, free kick, penalty or a throw in. Croatia will have to make sure to sure that up because France have been very dangerous scoring from crosses in this years tournament. All around, Croatia have had a very good world cup, their best ever. Croatia are the smallest country since Uruguay in 1950 to reach a world cup final.
Keys/Tactics
Let’s start with France. France are a team who can play both styles, attacking fluent football with one wave of attacks after the other, or a grind out hard working style. We’ve seen France play attacking football against Argentina, where they completely destroyed them with their pace, but then you can look at their performance against Belgium where France surrendered possession and hit them on counters or from set pieces. France are very good from set pieces. France play a 4-3-3 style where they allow both full backs in Pavard and Lucas to join up attacks. Their CB’s both stay back and only get forward on corners or free kicks. France tend to play 3 midfielders them being Kante Pogba and Matuidi. Kante and Matuidi both provide a lot of protection in that midfield, especially Kante who seems to be everywhere. This allows the full backs to join attacks and Pogba to play in a more of a free role going forward which is something he doesn’t have on club level. And finally the front 3 consists of Griezmann and Mbappe on the wings with Giroud up front being the target man and a striker who holds up the play. Griezmann and Mbappe have a free role to get inside the box and score goals to help Giroud. France are very dangerous from counter attacks, especially with Mbappe’s pace and Pogba’s passing and Pogba’s ability to run with the ball. You don’t want to get into an end to end game with this team because they’re so quick and clinical. The keys to beating Croatia is to attack them on the wings. Mbappe especially has to use his pace against Strinic or Vrsaljko because we saw Croatia struggle with pacey England players in Sterling and Lingard which is why France must try to exploit that weakness. France are physically quicker than Croatia and that’s something they must exploit. France must win the midfield battle, they have done so in every game and facing Croatia they’re facing the best midfield in the tournament. Whoever wins the midfield battle, will win the final and that’s why it’s important for France to win it. Defensively the full backs must continue to show good play to deny Rebic and Perisic who have run teams ragged at times in this tournament. And of course for France, they must win the physical battle whether it’s Giroud vs the Croatian CB’s or if it’s Varane and Umtiti trying to take out Mandzukic out of the game.
Now onto Croatia. Croatia tend to play possession based football. They dominated possession in every game of the knockouts. Their dominant midfield led by Modric and Rakitic has been their biggest key in success. One thing Croatia like is to play against non physical football teams. France aren’t the most physical side which favours Croatia but they can play that type of style which is something Croatia will hope doesn’t happen because they have struggled against those type of teams in the tournament. In terms of team news, everyone is fit. Croatia like to play 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 formation, their full backs tend to go forward sometimes thanks to Brozovic playing in a deep role with Rakitic and Modric slightly further forward. They tend to play Perisic and Rebic on the wings and Mandzukic up front. They are pretty much similar to France. They win games thanks to their midfield and wingers who get to link up with a tall striker and at the back they have a physical centre back pairing who are dangerous from set pieces. The keys for Croatia are pretty much the same, must win the midfield battle and they got to play physical. Vida and Lovren must roughen up the French attackers and the Croatians must now allow Mbappe to have freedom because he’s clinical and will punish Croatia. Croatia must throw more than one body at Mbappe just to limit him and his pace. Croatia must test the French full backs regardless of well they’ve played. They can always be exposable and if they have one weakness it’d be that. Croatia also need to make sure to be organised set pieces since France have been scoring from those lately. Umtiti and Varane especially have to be looked after and can’t be let to get away from set pieces.
Prediction
It’d be hard to see France losing back to back finals. We’re going to give France the edge in this Final. All around France have more talent and have peaked just at the right time. You also have to consider the factor that France had one extra day of rest and have not played one extra time, while Croatia have already had three 120 minute games. France are physically stronger and quicker. Also midfield wise, a part of the game where Croatia are the best at, France have the players who can easily match up with that. It’s really hard to point out anything that Croatia are better than France at. France simply have the better team, athletically they’re superior and they’ve rested longer. They have players like Griezmann and Mbappe who love those big games and we just don’t think that they’ll lose two finals in two years. We’re predicting France to break Croatia’s hearts again like in 1998 with a 2-1 win. Griezmann will finally win a major final.
ODDS – Decimal
France Win (90 mins) – 1.95
Draw (90 mins) – 3.30
Croatia Win (90 mins) – 4.75
To Lift The Trophy – France 1.44 – Croatia 2.75
KICK OFF – 15th July 2018 – 4pm UK Time
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