In every soccer game, a bettor can only expect three major outcomes. There can be a winning team, a losing team, or if both teams are competent enough, there could be a draw. Although these three outcomes are given, many bettors tend to focus only on one team that will likely win or lose, mainly because of rooting up on their favorite player or team. Hence, regardless of the opportunities in soccer draws, many bettors will most likely pass them up.
Others may underestimate the probability of draw outcomes, but compared to other sports, a soccer game has more probability to end in a draw. Besides, draws account for nearly a quarter or 27% of the outcomes in a single season of Premier League. With the right betting strategy, one can precisely predict a draw in a soccer game. Thus, to quickly find which matches would likely end in a draw, here are some tips on predicting draws in soccer betting.
Determining When A Match Ends In A Draw
It can be tough at first to find a match that will most likely end up in a draw. Hence, let’s start this with an easy way. Naturally, football teams do not only play for a single year. They also have historical performance data that bettors can use to determine the probabilities of having a draw outcome. Hence, one thing to look at is the leagues with a history of resulting in draws.
For example, the leading European championships have famous leagues that always end up in a draw for the past ten years, such as Ligue 1, Serie A, Bundesliga, Premier League, Liga, and Champions League. Among these leagues, Ligue 1 has the most chances of ending up in a draw of 25.80%. If leagues are still not enough to determine a draw match, some teams played with the most draws aside from that.
However, at this time, a team must have a probability of at least 40% that they will end up in a draw. Although a draw outcome is still possible when the odds are less than 40%, it is less likely, and staking them can be risky. For better and more accurate results, always back up these presumptions with statistics.
How To Place A Draw In A Bet
Since it is typical for football fans or bettors to only choose between winning and losing odds, bookmakers will probably pay out mostly in favor of either team winning. If this is the case, bookmakers will see that it is a huge risk for them. Thus, to lessen the risk of losing on the part of the bookmakers, they have separated odd sets to spread out bets for their advantage. There is nothing wrong here, bettors can still decide on their bets, but they have to consider the odd sets.
Bookmakers tend to increase the bets for the draw outcome by boosting the odds, lowering the odds on win or loss outcomes. Hence, this can be an excellent opportunity to pay less even if the other outcomes succeed. For instance, the outcome is 1X2, and there are two different odds. One has more balanced odds, while the other is a strong home favorite. The first has 8/5 odds for a home team to win, 23/10 for a draw, and 19/4 for an away team to win.
On the other hand, the strong home favorite has odds of 13/20 for a home team to win, 23/10 for a draw, and 19/4 for an away team to win. Although the first one is the closest outcome, it can be observed that the odds for a draw outcome remain the same.
Calculating The Chances Of A Draw
The most challenging part of predicting draws in soccer betting is that mathematical models are most likely used when it comes to probabilities. Bookmakers usually predict the chances of outcomes through mathematical models, and the most commonly used is the Poisson Distribution. Poisson Distribution is used to determine the probability of each possible score. To calculate it, the first step is getting the league’s average goal expectancy, attack strength, and defense strength on both opposing teams.
To begin with, the goals scored at home by all teams and away goals by all teams in the league must be divided by the number of matches to get the league’s average number of goals. To get the attack strength, have the team’s average number of goals divided by the league’s average number of goals. On the other hand, the defense strength can be calculated by dividing that team’s average number of goals allowed by the league’s average number of goals allowed.
After getting the league’s average number of goals, attack strength, and defense strength, it is time to determine the goal expectancy of each team by simply multiplying them. Lastly, to calculate the Poisson Distribution, use this formula (P=(𝛌ke-𝛌)/ K!). However, there are many online calculators to use for more straightforward calculations.
Draw outcomes may not be too popular in the soccer betting community, but this doesn’t mean that there is no value to be found in it. Besides, betting on draws is also one of the excellent betting strategies that bettors can apply.