Poland host Italy in what shapes up to be a crucial group match as both sides are tied for bottom 2 places with 1 point each and 5 points behind Portugal. This essentially is a relegation battle and both sides MUST not lose otherwise relegation to League B is pretty much certain. The first match ended in a 1-1 draw in this competition in Italy. Now, Poland are the host team.
Key Facts
The loss to Portugal on Thursday was Poland’s first competitive home loss in 5 years.
Robert Lewandowski is currently enduring a 4 game goal drought this season. He’s also enduring a goal drought for his nation having not scored in 5 straight competitive matches for Poland.
However, Poland’s other striker Piatek is currently enduring form of his life having scored 14 in 9 for club and country this season, he’s currently scored in 6 games in succession including bagging a goal against Portugal.
13 of Poland’s previous 15 competitive matches had over 2.5 goals.
Poland have a 0W 4D 3L record against League A opposition in their last 7 matches.
Italy have only won 1 of their previous 10 matches. 5D 4L. Shocking form.
Italy have only scored 7 goals in those previous 10 matches.
Only 2 of Italy’s 13 previous matches had over 2.5 goals. Not entertainers.
Italy haven’t kept a clean sheet in 8 matches in a row
In Italy’s last 10 matches against League A opposition, they’ve won just one. 5D 4L.
Team News
Poland: Against, Portugal we saw both strikers start in Piatek and Lewandowski and we can expect them both to start again given Piatek’s form and Lewandowski being the star man. We shouldn’t expect many changes from the line-up that started against Portugal, maybe one or two changes as it’s quite likely that Blazczykowski could potentially start after scoring coming off the bench against Portugal.
Italy: Italy started Insigne up front and brought Immobile off the bench during their friendly game against Ukraine, however its expected that Immobile will return into the starting line-up and Mancini will move Insigne on the wing with Bernardeschi likely to start on the other wing having scored in that game. Elsewhere we should see all the key players to feature like Jorginho, Verratti, Chiellini, Bonucci etc. It’s a strong line-up on paper but they are yet to show that on the pitch and that’s the focus right now for Mancini to get his team to play well together.
Betting Tips and Predictions
On paper Italy may be the better side, but their form in 2018 is beyond awful and given how good Poland are at home we would be willing to take their side for this match. Poland are priced to win at 2.85 and a safer 0.0 handicap is priced at a decent 1.95. Poland were close to winning against Italy playing away from home so with a fiery fan base behind them we believe that they should really be tipped as favourites and there’s value to back them. Goal overs/Unders are risky and would be unadvisable to back them however card overs might be worth the look given that we have two feisty sides and there’s a lot on the line in this match. Piatek to score anytime is worth the try too, he’s been firing them in left right and centre recently. Poland to win 2-1 is our prediction
Match Odds (TonyBet)
Poland Win – 2.85
Draw – 3.15
Italy Win – 2.60
KICK OFF – 14th October 2018 – 7:45pm UK Time
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