Italy will seek to go top of the group as they host Portugal! After snatching a last minute winner against Poland last month, Italy have saved their hopes of winning the group and clinched survival in League A. However even with a win here, the chances to qualify would stay slim given that Italy would still need Poland to beat Portugal in Portugal. Portugal have won both games despite Ronaldo not taking part and anything other than a loss sees them advance into the next round of the Nations League, if they lose then of course as mentioned they’d still have a chance to advance with a home win over Poland however we all know they’d rather get the job done here and they will look to do so against Italy. Portugal won the first fixture 1-0 at home.
Key Facts
Italy have only managed 2 wins in 9 games in 2018. 4D 3L.
Out of Italy’s previous 14 games, 12 had under 2.5 goals! Not so entertaining.
Italy have drawn all 3 of their home games in 2018 by the score of 1-1 (vs Poland Netherlands and Ukraine).
Italy have only scored 8 goals in 9 games in 2018.
Italy’s Lorenzo Insigne has been the most in form Italian striker this season with 10 goals in 17 apps for club and country this season. Hasn’t scored for Italy in his 2 apps yet however.
Italy have a 2W 5D 3L record against League A opposition in their last 10 matches against such. 3 overs 7 unders in those games (2.5 total).
Portugal are unbeaten in 9 consecutive away games. 8W 1D.
Since the World Cup, Portugal have shown great form with 3W 1D 0L scoring 8 goals in those 4 games.
Portugal’s striker Andre Silva has scored in both games of the UENL so far.
Portugal have only lost 2 competitive matches since the start of EURO 2016. 13W 8D 2L.
In 2018, Portugal games had 8 overs and 5 unders (2.5 goal total).
Portugal have a 3W 5D 2L record against League A opposition in their last 10 games against such. 2 of those draws ended up as wins in ET/Pens.
Team News
Italy: Roberto Mancini doesn’t have many serious absentees apart from Bernardeschi who is out with an injury therefore we could see Berardi or Immobile to start instead of him. Otherwise, Mancini has a full strength squad with the likes of Jorginho, Chiellini, Verratti, Insigne, Bonucci etc all available to him and who should all start for this game. Don’t expect much change from the lineup that beat Poland last month.
Portugal: Portugal are yet again without their star man Cristiano Ronaldo but they’ve shown they can cope without him so far in this competition with 2 wins from 2. There aren’t any injuries to any of the key players for Portugal as everyone that started against Poland last month are available. Andre Silva was nursing an injury but did return last week and is called up to play and should start. Andre Gomes has been called up after missing out last month with an injury and will look to gain a starting spot in midfield.
Betting Tips and Predictions
We anticipate a feisty game here with so much on the line. Italy are tipped as favourites at 2.15 while Portugal are priced at 3.70 here. On current form, we see Portugal as a more of a value bet if we were to pick a winner, however a draw seems like the likeliest result here. Italy have drawn every home game in 2018 whereas a draw is enough for Portugal to advance so we could very well see them playing for that result and only trying to score on the counter. This game has an under of goals written all over too. Under 2 goals at 2.00 is worth the try. We anticipate there to be quite a few bookings given the importance of the game and the fact that Italy are involved. The prediction for this game is a bore 0-0 draw, Italy will be on the front foot but Portugal will hold them off and move into the next round.
Match Odds (TonyBet)
Italy Win – 2.15
Draw – 3.15
Portugal Win – 3.70
KICK OFF – 17th November 2018 – 7:45pm UK Time
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