The final fixture for the Europa League is here and we’ve got a big game here with intentions to qualify to the next round! Olympiakos host the famous AC Milan club in Greece. AC Milan seem to be in a pretty safe position as they’re 3 pts ahead and have won the reverse fixture 3-1 at San Siro, BUT the job is not quite done yet. Olympiakos need to win this game either 2-0 or by 3 goals if Milan score at least one. The task is daunting but we’ve seen crazy things in football before. With Betis already qualified and Dudelange eliminated, this game is literally a do or die for both sides. Milan may have an edge, but they absolutely MUST not come out and put in a lethargic performance here.
Olympiakos have only managed to win 2 of their last 5 previous games in all competitions after winning 5 straight. 2D 1L.
Including qualifiers, Olympiakos are unbeaten at home in Europe this season. 3W 1D 0L and they’ve scored 12 goals beating team by 2+ goals in each win.
Olympiakos average 2.4 booking per game in Europa League as they’ve been booked 12 times in 5 games.
Olympiakos have had 2 over 3 under 2.5 goals games in UEL this season. Their games average 2.6 goals per game in the Groups.
7 of Olympiakos 8 goals in Europa League groups came against Dudelange meaning they only managed 1 against Milan and Betis in the 3 other games.
Olympiakos have won 9 of 12 home games in all competitions this season. 2D 1L.
AC Milan have only won 3 away games from 9 this season. 4D 2L.
AC Milan haven’t shown great form recently winning just 2 of last 6 games. 3D 1L.
AC Milan games average 3.4 goals in Europa League, however their away games just average 1.5 goals while their home games average 4.7. They have 3 overs 2 unders and both unders were away.
4 of 5 Milan’s games in Europa League had BTTS.
Patrick Cutrone is the AC Milan leading scorer in the Europa League with 4 goals which is 3rd highest in the competition.
AC Milan have only managed 3 clean sheets in 20 games this season across all competitions.
AC Milan have seen 13 bookings in 5 Europa League games this season which is 2.6 per game.
Olympiakos: The Greek side are relatively healthy apart from their attacker Ahmed Hassan who is the only definite absentee from this game. Expect a full strength squad out there as they need to put in a historic performance here to advance.
AC Milan: Milan have way more injuries to deal with as they’re without Caldara, Biglia, Bonaventura and Musacchio are all out with long term injuries. Furthermore, Strinic and Romagnoli are doubtful to feature while Conti isn’t eligible to play in Europa League. Expect Gattuso to field quite a strong side out there and we can expect star men Higuain and Suso both to start given the importance of the game.
Betting Tips and Predictions
We’ve got Milan as slight favourites to win at 2.62 whereas Olympiakos are 2.88. Obviously in this game we can expect Olympiakos to attempt to get forward which should lead to an open game. Olympiakos simply have to win 2-0 and if they cant keep a clean sheet even worse, by 3 goals so this should definitely be an open game. Milan have a ton of attacking talent themselves, we’ve seen their ability to score goals this season and they shouldn’t have a problem to bag a couple if the game really opens up. Defensively Milan are poor and should concede too. Despite Milan’s UEL away games being so under-ish, this one is expected to be an over in our eyes and over 2.5 goals at 2.02 is the pick to make and in that case BTTS will likely happen too. The other bet of the game is over 4.5 cards. Italian sides tend to get feisty in big games, same can be said for Greeks. Both teams average around 2-3 cards in the competition and realistically in an important game that number can only rise. We’re anticipating quite an entertaining game here with either team coming away with a 2-1 win and we should see 5+ bookings.
Match Odds (Unibet)
Olympiakos Win – 2.88
Draw – 3.40
AC Milan – 2.62
KICK OFF – 13th December 2018 – 8pm UK Time