The final match day of the Champions League football is here and what a huge game we have between two top football clubs of Europe. It’s a game that basically decides who goes through and who goes down to Europa League! Currently, Napoli are 1st and Liverpool are 3rd however Liverpool can overcome the Italian side with a win here. With PSG likely to win in Serbia, this game becomes do or die assuming nothing crazy happens in the other game. For Liverpool to finish above Napoli they either have to win 1-0 or defeat Napoli by 2+ goals if they were to concede so if Napoli score 1, Liverpool would need to win 3-1 and so on. Napoli outplayed Liverpool in the first fixture and won 1-0, however Liverpool have picked up some great form in recent weeks and we’ve seen them deliver in Europe many times before in these situations. Will it be another special European night at Anfield, or will Napoli kill off the European dream for Liverpool?
Key Facts
Liverpool have scored 31 goals in the Champions League at home under Jurgen Klopp in 9 games. They’ve scored 7 in their 2 home games this season in Europe.
On average there are 4.3 goals scored at Anfield in the Champions League with Jurgen Klopp in charge of Liveprool.
Liverpool have a 7W 2D 0L record in the Champions League at home under Jurgen Klopp. Won both home games this season.
Liverpool have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 games at Anfield this season.
Liverpool have been dominant at Anfield this season with a 8W 1D 1L record.
Mo Salah is coming off a game where he scored a hattrick in during the weekend. Caught form at the right time. However he’s not scored in any of the big games this season (Chelsea x2, Man City, Napoli, PSG x2, Everton, Arsenal, Spurs).
Liverpool’s record in big games this season is 3W 3D 3L.
Liverpool have scored 7 goals in their last 2 games.
4 of last Liverpool’s 5 games seen over 2.5 goals.
Napoli are unbeaten in 12 straight games in all competitions. 8W 4D.
Napoli are still unbeaten in the Champions League this season. 2W 3D.
Both of Napoli’s away games in the UCL finished as draws (0-0 at Crvena Zvezda, 2-2 at PSG).
Napoli have scored 9 goals in their last 3 games. Red hot.
Lorenzo Insigne has scored in every big UCL game this season (2 goals vs PSG, 1 goal vs Liverpool). However he’s currently enduring a 5 game goal drought.
4 of last 5 Napoli’s games seen over 2.5 goals.
In the first meeting between these clubs, Napoli managed to make Liverpool fail to hit the target throughout the whole game.
Napoli are unbeaten in 4 straight away games scoring 9 goals (2+ in every game). They’ve won 3 and drawn 1.
Napoli have done well in big games this season in all competitions beating AC Milan, Lazio, Liverpool, Atalanta while drawing PSG twice and Roma and only losing to Juventus. 4W 2D 1L.
Team News
Liverpool: Joe Gomez continues to be out for Liverpool while Dejan Lovren has also missed a couple games with an injury but will seek to return. If Lovren can’t go, then Matip will start alongside van Dijk in the centre of the defence. Klopp will have a huge selection headache in midfield with Keita and Fabinho consistently playing well and have clearly warranted a start alongside Wijnaldum despite Henderson and Milner both looking to start. Milner played RB on Saturday but Alexander-Arnold will return to play there so Milner will either move to midfield to come off the bench. Captain Henderson could very well be left out aswell. Up front, Sadio Mane is in contention to return to the starting lineup and will likely come in for Shaqiri who will either be moved to the midfield or the bench so Mane can start alongside Salah and Firmino.
Napoli: Napoli don’t have any fresh injury news. Except from Chiriches and Verdi who were already injured, everyone else is available for Carlo Ancelotti. Faouzi Ghoulam return to the side during the weekend but will likely come off the bench since he missed so much time and the games are coming up fast and Rui will probably return to the LB position. Mertens was on the bench during the weekend and should come in for Milik who did score 2 goals but Ancelotti will likely sit him. Callejon and Ruiz were also rested and will probably start here. Maksimovic and Albiol are also expected to start in the defence for Hysaj and Luperto who started against Frosinone. It was a rotated side during the weekend so most of the squad will be fresh for this huge clash for the Italian side.
Betting Tips and Predictions
The stakes for this game are crazy high and this is what we’re expecting. In this game clearly one team will be chasing the tie no matter what the score is. It’s impossible for these teams to be satisfied with any possible score therefore we can anticipate attacking brand of football from one side and counter attacks from the other throughout the whole game. Over 3.5 goals here is our pick at 2.35 or you could take the safer Over 3 goals at 1.84. Less risk but lower odds. Both teams have been red hot going forward recently, this should be quite an open game and that’s why we’re looking at an over. Plus, Liverpool’s games at Anfield in the Champions League these past two seasons have been incredibly high scoring and it shouldn’t be any different here. Our other pick is LIVE based. A Liverpool win currently is priced at 1.65 which is a bit too low right now but could rise during the game. We believe that they will come away with a historic win here. With that Anfield crowd behind them and Liverpool’s history of pulling out big results in Europe you just can’t bet against them. If the odds rise at 1.8+ at any time then Liverpool to win is the pick to make or even the -1 AH pre game at 2.04 if you don’t want to wait LIVE. Our prediction for the game is a 3-1 Liverpool win and they will advance into the R16.
Match Odds (Unibet)
Liverpool Win – 1.65
Draw – 4.40
Napoli Win – 5.20
KICK OFF – 11th December 2018 – 8pm UK Time
.png?v=1.014689135)
