Napoli will seek to overcome a 2 goal deficit as they host Arsenal in the 2nd leg of the Europa League Quarter Final.
Arsenal dominated Napoli in the 1st leg at the Emirates and defeated them 2-0 in what was a relatively comfortable win and arguably should’ve been a bigger win which definitely was surprising to see Napoli so outmatched.
Napoli have not been playing good football over the past few weeks only winning 4 of their last 10 overall games (2D 4L). However they did grab a 1-3 win against Chievo in the league in their most recent game which Napoli fans will hope that it’ll bring them back to form.
As for Arsenal, they have been in scorching hot form having won 6 of their last 7 games (1L) and have been very good defensively in this run keeping 5 clean sheets which definitely helps considering Arsenal have a lead to protect. Arsenal defeated Watford 0-1 in their most recent game to keep up the hot form which was a massive win for them.
Napoli have been very good at home this season only losing 1 game from 22 (16W 5D) across all competitions and they do tend to score a lot of goals from time to time in front of their fans. Napoli have not lost a single European home game defeating Liverpool, Crvena Zvezda, Zurich and Salzburg while drawing PSG. Their solid home record is something that works to Napoli’s advantage if they want to overcome this deficit as they are at home for this game.
As for Arsenal, despite winning their most recent away game at Watford 0-1 in which by the way Watford were down to 10 men since the 11th minute, their away form is a concern coming to Naples. Arsenal have not been a good away side especially in 2019 just managing 3 wins which have come against League One Blackpool, bottom of the Premier League Huddersfield and 10 men Watford. Now Arsenal have won 3 of 5 away games in Europa League but these came in the group stages and Arsenal have lost both of their away knockout games to BATE 1-0 and Rennes 3-1 so considering that, you have to say the tie is nowhere near dead yet as Arsenal simply are too shaky away from home right now.
The man to watch for Napoli is Arkadiusz Milik. He’s been consistently good for them all season long being the top scorer of the club with 20 goals you’d have to say he’s the biggest threat to score goals for Napoli despite them having talented players such as Insigne and Mertens as well who are also big threats however Milik has been the main man more so than not. Milik did score at the weekend as well against Chievo so with that goal he should be full of confidence entering this game.
For Arsenal, without a doubt Pierre Emerick Aubameyang is the man to watch. 23 goals this season and he’s coming off a performance where he scored against Watford in their most recent game. Aubameyang has been Arsenal’s most consistent goal scorer this season and will of course be their main threat in this game to get goals.
Napoli and Arsenal don’t really have much history against each other. Only 3 European meetings and other than last week, they meet twice in the 2013-14 UCL season where the clubs split wins. Napoli won their home game 2-0 in that season (the only ever meeting between Napoli and Arsenal in Naples) which is a result they could do with in this game for sure as it’d take it to Extra Time and potentially Pens. All 3 H2H meetings between these sides ended with 2-0 wins by the home team (2W Arsenal, 1W Napoli).
Napoli are favoured to win this game in 90 mins at 1.67 whereas Arsenal to win is 4.75 with Draw offered at 4.35. However with a 2-0 lead, Arsenal are firm favourites to advance at 1.25 whereas Napoli to advance is 4.00. Napoli being the home favourites to win the match shouldn’t be a surprise considering how much better they are at home and how poor Arsenal are away from home, however having gone 2-0 down without scoring an away goal it does make it an incredibly tough task for Napoli to advance and if they concede at least 1 they’d all of a sudden have to get 4 which is why the odds are so high for them to make it to the Semi Finals. This tie by no means is over yet, but Arsenal are currently holding a very strong lead in it. Odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Napoli: Amadou Diawara and Raul Albiol are both likely to be out, elsewhere Carlo Ancelotti have everyone available to choose.
Arsenal: Bellerin and Welbeck remain out meanwhile Sokratis is available and will likely be in the starting line-up after being suspended in the league game against Watford while Torreira travelled with the squad despite having a groin injury although Emery may choose not to risk playing him.
Betting Stats
*Napoli’s stats will include UCL as well to give a clearer understanding how they get on in Europe overall this season.
Napoli have covered 40% of their total goal overs at home in Europe this season (2-3). They covered 50% of it in the UEL (1-1).
Napoli have covered 40% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in Europe this season (2-3). They covered 50% of it in the UEL (1-1).
Napoli average 1.4 bookings per game at home in Europe overall this season (7 bookings in 5 games. They average 2 bookings per game at home in UEL this season (4 bookings in 2 games).
Mertens and Insigne are Napoli’s top scorers at home in Europe this season with 2 home European goals each, however all of them came in the Champions League. Milik, Ruiz, Verdi and Ounas have scored all of Napoli’s home Europa League goals (1 each).
Napoli have covered 60% of their Handicaps in Europe at home this season (3-1-1). They covered 50% of it in UEL (1-1-0) with no Lost.
Napoli have covered 80% of their 1st half Handicaps in Europe at home this season (4-1) and 100% of it in the Europa League (2-0).
Arsenal have covered 60% of their total goal overs away from home in the UEL this season (3-2).
Arsenal have covered 40% of their total 1st half goal overs away from home in the UEL this season (2-1-2).
Arsenal average 2.2 bookings per game away from home in the UEL this season (11 bookings in 5 games).
Emile Smith-Rowe is Arsenal’s top scorer away from home in the UEL this season with 2 away European goals. Ramsey, Willock, Iwobi, Welbeck, Sokratis and Guenduozi have all the other away UEL goals for Arsenal with 1 each.
Arsenal have covered 60% of their Handicaps away from home in the UEL this season (3-2).
Arsenal have covered 40% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in the UEL this season (2-1-2).
KICK OFF – 18th April 2019 – 8pm UK Time
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