The Europa League is back and we have two of the top contenders face off in the Quarter Finals as Arsenal host Napoli in the 1st leg!
Arsenal have so far had quite an interesting road in the competition. The Gunners easily won their group, but in the knockouts they had to overcome deficits in the 2nd leg twice already as they came back from 0-1 down against BATE with a 3-0 win and then came back from a 1-3 deficit against Rennes with a 3-0 win. Arsenal definitely cannot afford to fall behind here however considering they’re at home in the 1st leg this time and Napoli are a far more serious opponent than BATE and Rennes.
As for Napoli, their European road has been a little different. Napoli entered Europa League after finishing 3rd in their Champions League group and have looked comfortable in the knockouts so far. They beat Zurich 5-1 on aggregate and then Salzburg 4-3 on aggregate although Napoli had a far more comfortable tie against Salzburg than the result says as they won the 1st leg 3-0 and then took a 0-1 lead before Salzburg scored 3 goals which still weren’t enough to knock Napoli off.
Arsenal are entering this game after a very poor performance against Everton 1-0 at the weekend which snapped their 4 game win streak. Arsenal have had a great run of form for over a month now so that defeat may just be a one off for the Gunners plus it was away where they have been shocking all season. Going back home expect the Gunners to perform better.
Napoli have been down in form recently. Only 3 wins from 8 since the start of March, now they’re coming off back to back bad results losing 2-1 to Empoli and only managing a 1-1 draw at home against 10 men Genoa at home most recently. Now you could say Napoli’s motivation isn’t there anymore in the league considering they’re fighting for nothing and they may prioritise Europa League way more, but this run of form is definitely something that is a slight worry for Napoli.
Arsenal’s home form has been absolutely sensational all season long. As bad as they are on their travels, they have been exceptional at the Emirates this season and it is safe to say that their performances at the Emirates has been keeping them afloat this season. Only 3 defeats all season in all competitions, they’ve currently won 7 straight home games scoring 19 goals and in Europa League they’ve also been great with a 4W 1D 0L record at home which includes 2 tie turning around wins against BATE and Rennes in which they overturned 1st leg deficits as mentioned. Playing at home will be a huge advantage for Arsenal here and expect them to drop a solid performance as they usually do.
Arsenal have a very good home record in Europa League/UEFA Cup lately too winning 12 of last 17 (4D), losing just once to Ostersunds last season which didn’t affect Arsenal as they still went through.
Napoli have been average on their travels and their current away form is a little off as they’ve only managed 3 wins from their last 10 away games in all competitions also losing their most recent away game to Empoli 2-1. Napoli have only managed 1 win on their European travels from 5 games as well which was against Zurich in Europa League, elsewhere they drew with PSG and Crvena Zvezda in CL while losing to Liverpool in CL and Salzburg in the last round away from home though it didn’t affect them. Away form is a bit of a worry for Napoli coming into this 1st leg especially coming up against such a good home team in Arsenal, but if they could get a result that’d be massive coming back home.
Napoli have also got a horrendous European record away from home in England as they’re winless in 8 games in England losing 7 of those (1D).
Pierre Emerick Aubameyang is the player to watch for Arsenal. Top scorer this season with 22 goals, did come through in the last round when Arsenal needed to overcome a 2 goal deficit against Rennes with 2 goals and overall whenever picked, Aubameyang has played well in this competition so without a doubt he’s the man that has to deliver for the Gunners.
For Napoli you’d have to say Arkadiusz Milik is the man to watch. Though they have Mertens and Insigne too up front, the Polish forward has been the standout player this season with 19 total goals which is clubs best and he’s in decent form having scored 6 in his last 9 apps for Napoli so if Napoli were to win expect him to get on the scoresheet more so than anyone else.
Arsenal and Napoli last faced in the 2013-14 Champions League campaign in the Group Stages and both clubs won their home games. Napoli won their home game 2-0 and Arsenal won their home game 2-0. Arsenal did best Napoli for the 2nd place and a place in the Knockouts however while Napoli were knocked down in Europa League that season.
Arsenal are bookies favourites to win the 1st leg match at 2.38 whereas Napoli to win is 3.00 and draw is tipped at 3.50. However, Napoli are the slight favourites to advance at 1.65 to Arsenal being offered at 2.25 as underdogs. These sides are pretty evenly matched, Napoli are slightly better overall which is why they’re the tie favourites and they do have an advantage of playing at home in the 2nd leg, but Arsenal being favourites to win the home game shouldn’t be a shock considering how well they normally play at the Emirates and how suspect Napoli have been away from home. A win is definitely way more needed for Arsenal here considering they don’t do well on their travels and the 2nd leg is in Naples, but at the same time Napoli cannot afford to fall behind by multiple goals as it’d be a tough test turning that around. Odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Arsenal: Bellerin and Welbeck remain out with long term injuries while Xhaka and Koscielny are going to have to face late fitness tests to determine their availability.
Napoli: Diawara and Raul Albiol are both out while David Ospina is also expected to be out. Napoli’s best defender Koulibaly is available after being suspended in the last Europa League match while Insigne is also back.
Betting Stats (UEL Based)
*Napoli’s stats will also include their Champions League stats to give a better knowing on how they get on in Europe this season.
Arsenal have covered just 20% of their total goal overs at home in UEL this season (1-1-3).
Arsenal have covered 40% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in UEL this season (2-3).
Arsenal average 1.2 bookings per game at home in UEL this season (6 bookings in 5 games).
Pierre Emerick Aubameyang is Arsenal’s top scorer at home in UEL with 4 home European goals this season.
Arsenal have covered 40% of their Handicaps at home in UEL this season (2-3).
Arsenal have covered 60% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in UEL this season (3-1-1).
Napoli have covered 60% of their total goal overs away from home in Europe this season (3-2). They’ve covered 100% of their overs in UEL (2-0).
Napoli have covered 40% of their total 1st half goal overs away from home in Europe this season (2-3). 100% of covered 1st half overs in Europa League however (2-0).
Napoli average 2.8 bookings per game away from home in Europe this season (14 bookings in 5 games). 2 Bookings per game away from home in UEL (4 bookings in 2 games).
Lorenzo Insigne is Napoli’s top scorer away from home in Europe this season with 2 away European goals. One of those came in Europa League.
Napoli have covered 40% of their Handicaps away from home in Europe this season (2-1-2). They’ve covered 50% of their Handicaps in UEL away from home (1-1).
Napoli have covered 40% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in Europe this season (2-1-2). They covered 50% of their 1st half Handicaps in UEL away from home this season (1-1-0).
KICK OFF – 11th April 2019 – 8pm UK Time
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