Porto host Roma in the 2nd leg of R16 stage of the Champions League in hopes of overturning a 1-2 deficit to reach the Quarter Final!
Porto are entering this game slightly down in form having won just 3 of their last 7 games which caused them to surrender the top spot in the league and they’ve fallen behind against Roma after the 1st leg, but it is a deficit that they can overcome with one goal.
Roma meanwhile have been playing good football winning 4 of last 5, but are coming off a bad loss against rivals Lazio 3-0 and it will be interesting to see whether that was just one blip and they’ll get back to form right away or if Roma are going to fall apart after that loss and get knocked out in Portugal.
Porto are a very good home side this season, although they lost their most recent home game to rivals Benfica 1-2, prior to that they won 15 straight in front of their own fans including winning all 3 home games in the Champions League against Galatasaray, Schalke and Lokomotiv Moscow and doing so in a very impressive fashion.
Roma’s biggest concern is their away form which doesn’t help that they’re playing a strong side at home. Roma’s record in last 10 away games is 3W 2D 5L which is very uninspiring. They’ve also haven’t had much success in their European travels with a 1W 2L 0D record losing 3-0 to Real Madrid, 2-1 to Plzen and picking up a lone 1-2 win at CSKA. Last season, despite reaching the Semis Roma lost all 3 away knockout Champions League matches and they’ve lost 6 of last 8 away in Europe (1W 1D). It definitely is a worrying record for them with the slim lead that they’ve got.
Porto have really struggled in their recent UCL knockout matches losing 5 of last 6 while drawing the other.
Roma have a good history of winning UCL ties after winning the first leg at home, in fact they won 26 of 30 ties after taking the lead at Home to the 2nd leg.
Tiquinho Soares it the man to watch from Porto going forward. He’s only had one app in Europe but mainly due to injuries, however he has been great for them whenever he got the chance to play and should be in the starting line-up for this. He has 12 goals for the club this season. Moussa Marega is another danger man, he’s returned back from injury in the last game and should feature. He’s been their top scorer in Europe with 5 goals in 6 CL apps.
Edin Dzeko is the biggest danger man for Roma. Despite not so good season, he still is their main guy up front and despite domestic struggles, he’s actually played great in Europe with 5 CL goals in 5 apps. Dzeko has had some great European moments throughout his career and in a game like this we can expect him to be on his best for Roma.
Porto and Roma last faced in Portugal in the 2016 CL qualifiers and that game resulted with a 1-1 draw, Porto would later go on to win 0-3 in Italy and qualify for the competition. It will be interesting to see whether Porto can put together that type of a 2nd leg against Roma again this time at home.
Porto are tipped bookies favourites to win in 90 mins at 1.85 while Roma are offered as underdogs to win at 4.50 with the Draw priced at 3.85. Roma are however the slight favourites to advance at 1.65 to Porto’s 2.25 odds understandably so since they have a 2-1 lead in their hand. Roma would reach their 2nd straight Quarters if they were to advance and for Porto it’d be their first since 2015 if they were to get the job done. Odds based on Unibet.
Team News
FC Porto: Porto don’t have any serious injury concerns and should be able to field the strongest 11. Moussa Marega as mentioned has returned from injury.
AS Roma: Youngster Zaniolo is available after picking up a knock against Lazio. Kostas Manolas has passed the fitness tests and should be available after missing the Lazio clash. Javier Pastore and Cengiz Under are both out however.
Betting Stats
Only 45.8% of the teams that won the 1st leg at home 2-1 have went on to qualify to the next round of the Champions League (11 of 24).
Porto have covered 66.7% of their total goal overs at home in UCL this season (2-1).
Porto have covered 33.3% of their 1st half total goal overs at home in UCL this season (1-2).
Porto average 2.33 bookings at home in UCL this season (7 bookings in 3 games).
Moussa Marega is Porto’s top scorer at home with 3 home European goals for the club this season. He’s scored in every home game for Porto in the Champions League this season.
Porto have covered 66.7% of their home Handicaps this season in UCL (2-1-0).
Porto have covered just 33.3% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in UCL this season however (1-2). Better 2nd half team at Home.
Roma have covered 66.7% of their total goal overs away from home in UCL this season (2-1).
Roma are yet to cover a total 1st half goal over away from home in UCL this season (0-1-2). Tend to be more goals in their 2nd halves away from home in Europe.
Roma average 2 bookings per game away from home in UCL this season (6 bookings in 3 games).
Roma don’t have a top scorer away from home in UCL this season. Manolas, Pellegrini and Under are their only scorers in their European travels this season. Dzeko is yet to score a European away goal this season.
Roma have covered 33.3% of their Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (1-2).
Roma have covered 33.3% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (1-1-1).
KICK OFF – 6th March 2019 – 8pm UK Time
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