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UEFA CL: Atletico Madrid vs Juventus Betting Preview



Atletico Madrid host Juventus in a clash between two European elites as both sides will look to gain an edge in a crucial 1st leg tie.


To begin with the host team, Atletico Madrid haven’t quite had the season of dreams so far really despite being 2nd in La Liga they are 7 points off the top and don’t look like catching Barca, they’re out of the domestic cup which really makes the Champions League the only trophy that they could realistically win this season.


Atletico have qualified to the knockout stages quite comfortably finishing 2nd in their group on tied points with Dortmund but losing on the top spot by H2H as their 4-0 loss to Dortmund was obviously larger than their 2-0 win against them. Atletico did the double over Monaco and picked up 4 points against Club Brugge totalling 13 of 18 points. At home, Atletico won all 3 games and conceded just one goal.


Inconsistency is probably the best way to describe Atletico’s current form, they’ve only won 4 of their last 9 games while drawing 3 and losing 2. Although they beat Vallecano in their most recent game, they did lose back to back games to Betis and rivals Real Madrid prior to that so it’d be hard to say that they’re playing good football as of right now.


One thing that does favour Atletico this evening is that they’re at home because they have played really solid in their back yards across all competitions with a 16W 3D 1L record only loss coming in their most recent game here to Real Madrid which was definitely a disappointment but other than that they’ve been very good here mainly because they very rarely concede keeping 11 clean sheets already at home this season.


A worry coming into this game for Atletico would have to be their struggles to win big games all season long, other than their 2-0 win against Dortmund in UCL groups at home, Atletico also lost 4-0 to Dortmund, 1-3 to Real Madrid last week, they drew 1-1 with Barca, 1-1 with Valencia, 1-1 with Sevilla, 0-0 with Real Madrid just not a good record against top teams this season. 1W 4D 2L in what we’d consider “big” games.


Antoine Griezmann is of course the man to watch for the Madrid side as he’s clear and by far their biggest threat in scoring goals as he’s bagged 18 in 32 apps this season. Griezmann is especially on red hot form right now having scored 11 in his last 12 scoring in every game bar 2 in this run.


Looking at Juventus, well this team has been dominant all season long without a doubt, domestically they’re 13 points ahead on the top, won their CL group although they did get knocked out of the cup it’s been a very impressive season by them.


In UCL, Juventus had a comfortable road to the knockouts as they won the group with a 4W 0D 2L record. They won their first 3 games which pretty much clinched them a spot in the next round, although they had a couple of weird defeats to Man Utd at home and Young Boys in the last game it did not affect Juventus.


Juventus, just like Atletico also have a very solid defence, one of the best in Europe for many years now including this year and will be extremely hard to break down.


Unlike Atletico however, Juventus have been very good in big games. In Europe they already defeated Valencia away and Man Utd away without conceding, also splitting W/L with those teams at home. Domestically, Juve defeated everybody bar Atalanta with who they have a 1D 1L record, but they beat Roma Napoli Inter AC Milan x2 and Lazio x2 while conceding a total 1 goal against these teams so when it comes to big games they’re no strangers to delivering, especially defensively.


Juve are coming into this game on good form after a couple of strange results where they lost 3-0 to Atalanta and drew 3-3 with Parma, they returned to form with back to back 3-0 wins in the league against Sassuolo and Frosinone to right the ship back to normal again.


Cristiano Ronaldo is the player to watch of course for Juve. He’s not skipped a beat since his move to Juve, domestically they’re top scorer and assist man although he’s struggled in Europe weirdly with 1 goal in 5 apps, we can definitely anticipate him to get going here, he loves knockout stage football and normally shows up when it really matters.


Juventus away from home record is one of the best in Europe across all competitions with 13W 1D 2L, 2 of those failed wins came against Atalanta and the other against Young Boys in what was a meaningless game. Going away hasn’t really affected Juventus’ play.


Atletico and Juventus last met in the 2014-15 season Group Stages where both games were low scoring with Atletico winning the home game 1-0 and the Juve’s home game ended with a 0-0 draw. We can probably expect a low scoring here too given that it’s the first leg and both sides arguably have the best defences in Europe.


According to bookies this is a very evenly. Unibet odds currently have Juventus as a very slight favourites at 2.85 to win to Atletico’s win being tipped at 2.95. Draw is priced at 3.00 so as expected this is a very evenly 1st leg tie. Juventus are however tipped as bigger favourites to go through at 1.45 while Atletico are at 2.75.


 


Team News


Atletico Madrid: Lucas Hernandez is likely out while Diego Costa has returned but will likely come off the bench for this match.


Juventus: Juan Cuadrado is out otherwise Allegri has a fully healthy squad in his hands to pick from.


 


Betting Stats (UCL Based)


Atletico Madrid have covered 33.3% of their total goal overs at Home in the UCL this season (1-2).


However, Atletico have actually been good at covering 1st half total goal overs at Home in UCL this season at 66.7% with the other game being a Void (2-1-0). No 1st half Unders.


Antoine Griezmann is Atletico’s top scorer at Home in UCL with 4 home European goals having scored in all 3 home games. Griezmann have scored 57.1% of Atletico’s total goals at Home in Europe (4/7).


Atletico average 3 bookings per game at Home this season in UCL (9 bookings in 3 games).


Atletico have covered 66.7% of their Handicaps at Home in UCL this season (2-1-0).


Atletico have covered 66.7% of their 1st half Handicaps at Home in UCL this season (2-0-1).


Juventus have covered 33.3% of their total goal overs away from home in UCL this season (1-2).


Juventus have failed to cover any of their 1st half total goal overs away from home in UCL, however interestingly all 3 of those resulted with a Void (0-3-0).


Dybala and Pjanic are Juventus top scorers away from home in UCL this season with 2 away European goals each, they’re the only Juventus played to score away from home in Europe. Ronaldo is still scoreless in his European travels.


Juventus average 2 bookings per game away from home in UCL this season (6 bookings in 3 games).


Juventus have covered 66.7% of their Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (2-1).


Juventus have covered 66.7% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (2-1).


 


Other Interesting Stats


Atletico Madrid are unbeaten against Italian opposition under Diego Simeone. 4W 2D and have kept 5 clean sheets.


Atletico are unbeaten in 12 straight home Champions League knockout stage games winning 7 of those.


Antoine Griezmann has scored or assisted in all 6 games at the Atletico’s new stadium in the Champions League (6G 3A).


Juventus are unbeaten in 5 straight knockout stage games in UCL winning 4 of those.


Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 19 goals in his last 18 Champions League games that had 2 leg ties (R16 QF SF).


 


KICK OFF – 20th February 2019 – 8pm UK Time

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