Surprise package of the season Ajax host Juventus in the Champions League Quarter Final 1st leg!
To begin with the hosts, Ajax have had quite a ride in the competition so far. Ajax initially had to go through 3 qualifying rounds, then they advanced from the group stages edging Benfica and AEK for a 2nd spot finishing behind Bayern, but most impressively Ajax reached the Quarters by knocking out 3x defending Champions Real Madrid as they overcame a 2-1 deficit with one of the most famous wins ever at the Bernabeu 1-4 to win 5-3 on aggregate! Ajax have been one of the most exciting teams in the competition so far for sure.
Juventus have also had quite a crazy comeback themselves. Firstly they won their group over Man Utd, Valencia and Young Boys, but in R16 was when their character was fully tested as they had to overcome a 0-2 deficit against Atletico which they did with a 3-0 win thanks to a ridiculous performance by Cristiano Ronaldo who bagged a hattrick in the 2nd leg.
Looking at form, Ajax are absolutely banging it right now having won 9 of last 10. Since they knocked out Madrid they won 5 of 6 with the lone loss coming to Alkmaar in the league. However, even with that loss, Ajax have been playing incredible recently and have also came back from 5 pts behind to tie PSV in their league table including beating their own rivals 3-1 so a lot has continued to go right for Ajax since their last CL game. Ajax scored 35 goals in their last 10 games, they have been one of the most entertaining young teams in the world this season.
Juventus have been playing great themselves. They came out of international break in solid form having won all 3 games despite missing Ronaldo and it happened as their defence has been on fire conceding just one goal in these 3 games. Juve are known for their defending abilities (one of the best if not the best defensive side in Europe) so it’ll be interesting to see how they deal with the young talented Ajax attack. Juventus are coming off a 2-1 win against Milan which definitely was impressive considering they weren’t at full strength.
Ajax’s home form has been ridiculously good all season. Just one loss overall this season at home against Real Madrid which some will say was unlucky as Ajax dominated that game. Ajax have won all 4 home games since then scoring 14 goals though. Ajax have been pretty good at home in CL including qualifying rounds their home record in CL is 5W 1D 1L and they’ve scored 16 goals. Ajax have as mentioned faced a couple of giants too in Real Madrid and Bayern losing to Madrid 1-2 and drawing 3-3 with Bayern but they were solid in both performances and were unlucky not to win either.
Juventus away form has been a little up and down as they won just 3 of last 6 and lost the other 3, but they have won their most recent one away from home against Cagliari 0-2 in Serie A. In CL, Juventus have won 2 and lost 2 this season beating Valencia and Man Utd away from home, however they lost their last 2 to Young Boys and Atletico so their away form in the Champions League has been down entering this game which is a rare negative for Juve entering this tie.
Dusan Tadic has to be the man to watch for Ajax here. Having a season of his life so far with 30 Goals 17 assists in all competitions. He has 9G 7A in Europe and has already delivered some masterclasses against giants such as Real Madrid and Bayern so for sure Tadic is expected to have a huge game. David Neres is another man in scorching hot form having scored 6 in his last 7 apps. Ajax have a lot of dangerous attackers but these two definitely stand out the most.
For Juventus you’d have to say Ronaldo is the man to watch and although he missed the past few games with an injury he is in the squad so we’ll have him as the top man for Juve of course. Ronaldo has 22 goals in last 20 games in UCL knockout 2 leg ties (R16 QF SF) and in his last game he bagged a hattrick to send Juve into the Quarter Final stage. Ronaldo has also got 7 goals in 4 games against Ajax so he also loves this opponent. Nothing else needs to be added here for Ronaldo, he loves this competition, loves this opponent and he loves these big stage games. Expect a big game if he plays and if he doesn’t then watch out for Moise Kean who has been in scorching form having scored in each of his last 5 competitive apps and in all 3 games for Juve since international break including bagging a winner against AC Milan.
Looking at H2H, Juventus have owned Ajax in recent meetings though this is the first time they will meet since 2010 Europa League knockouts. Juve have knocked Ajax out of 3 consecutive European ties (1996 CL Final, 1997 CL Semi Final, 2010 EL Knockouts) entering this tie. Juve also won in each of their last 3 travels against Ajax (1997 2004 2010). A lot has changed of course since those meetings, but if we were to look at recent H2H, Juve have had Ajax’s number.
Juventus are the slight favourites to win the 1st leg tie offered at 2.35 to win whereas Ajax to win is 3.35 with Draw also tipped at 3.35. Juve are however HUGE favourites to advance offered at a slim 1.21 whereas Ajax to advance is 4.25. It’s understandable why Juve are such favourites as they have all the big named players who are rolling at the right time, but it’s best not to underestimate Ajax who have been in a similar position against Real Madrid and punished them as even bigger underdogs when they entered the Bernabeu on a deficit. The young Ajax side will be hungry and ready to go so Juventus will absolutely have to be on their heels ready to perform if they want to come away on top over these 2 legs and getting an away result will be important for the Italian side. Odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Ajax: They don’t have any fresh serious injury concerns, expect the best line-up possible out for Ajax.
Juventus: Cristiano Ronaldo is expected to start. However, Juventus will have a serious miss in Giorgio Chiellini as their most reliable defender is out with an injury which could be a big blow against this explosive Ajax attack. Emre Can is also out.
Betting Stats (UCL Based)
*Ajax stats will also include Qualifiers as they took part in them before entering the Group Stages.
Ajax have covered 42.9% of their total goal overs at home in UCL this season (3-2-2).
Ajax have covered 28.6% of their total 1st half goal overs at home in UCL this season (2-5).
Ajax average 2 bookings per game at home in UCL this season (14 bookings in 7 games).
Tadic, Tagliafico and Ziyech are all Ajax’s top scorers at home with 3 home European goals each this season.
Ajax have covered 85.7% of their Handicaps at home in UCL this season (6-1). Competitions 3rd best percentage.
Ajax have covered 57.1% of their 1st half Handicaps at home in UCL this season (4-3).
Juventus have covered 25% of their total goal overs away from home in UCL this season (1-1-2).
Juventus are yet to cover any of their 1st half total goal overs away from home in UCL this season, however 75% of them were a Void (0-3-1).
Juventus average 1.75 bookings per game away from home in UCL this season (7 bookings in 4 games).
Dybala and Pjanic are Juventus tied top scorers away from home in UCL this season with 2 away European goals each. They’re their only scorers away from home in the competition. Ronaldo surprisingly has not scored away from home in the Champions League this season.
Juventus have covered 50% of their Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (2-2).
Juventus have covered 50% of their 1st half Handicaps away from home in UCL this season (2-1-1).
KICK OFF – 10th April 2019 – 8pm UK Time
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