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This Saturday, Atalanta host AC Milan in a crucial game in the battle for the top 4!
To start with the hosts, Atalanta are currently 5th tied on points with Roma and Lazio but are currently edging both of these sides on goal difference. With a win here, Atalanta would leapfrog AC Milan into the top 4 making this a big game for them and Milan.
Atalanta are arguably the most entertaining side in Serie A. Atalanta have scored the 2nd most goals but have also conceded quite a lot, in fact the most conceded goals in the top 10. Atalanta’s games average more goals than any other clubs with 3.5 goals per game.
Atalanta are currently on a red hot form going unbeaten in 8 straight across all competitions having won 6 of those games and they’ve scored 22 goals in this run. They’ve beaten Juventus 3-0 in the cup not so long ago in case you need any proof on how great they’re playing right now
Surprisingly, Atalanta’s home record is actually worse than their away record, however recently they have really picked it up at home, they’ve dropped most of their points at home in the earlier stages this season.
Atalanta’s home games do tend to be less entertaining however averaging 2.8 goals per game compared to 4.2 goals per game in their travels so we may not see such goals avalanche here.
Striker Duvan Zapata is the man to watch as the in form striker has been on an absolute ridiculous tear having scored 18 goals in his last 12 apps for the club only failing to score in one of these games. This crazy run of form has put him in the top 2 top scorers in the league in general.
Atalanta are pretty strong at Home in big games this season, they’ve beaten Inter 4-1, Lazio 1-0 and Juventus as mentioned in the cup 3-0 while also drawing 2-2 with Juventus in the league, 3-3 against Roma despite being 0-3 down. Only big loss at home came against Napoli 1-2 where they got beaten with a late goal.
AC Milan have seemingly also hit some very good form, they’re unbeaten in 5 they’re coming off a good 3-0 win against Cagliari and the new signing Piatek has fit in perfectly with the team as they look to make a return to the Champions League football.
AC Milan are currently 4th in the league 1 point above 3 teams right below them so a win here could put them in a very strong position and could even move them closer to Inter for the 3rd place who are currently 4 points above them.
Not only that AC Milan’s attacking threat has picked up lately, but they have really been solid defensively too keeping 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games only conceding 1 goal. Being strong defensively could really benefit them against this deadly attacking Atalanta side.
Krzsystof Piatek is the obvious danger man for Milan here. The striker has now got 15 league goals in total although most with Genoa, he really fitted in well for AC Milan having scored in both of his league starts and has also bagged a brace in the Cup against Napoli so, so far Piatek has 4 goals in 3 starts for Milan.
AC Milan might be the most boring team to watch when they’re away from home because their away games average the least amount of goals (2) per game.
Looking at Milan’s success in big away games in the league, well it hasn’t panned out quite well as they’re winless in 4 (2W 2D). They lost 3-2 to Napoli despite leading 0-2, 1-0 to Inter. They did pick up draws against Lazio and Roma both being 1-1 though.
The first meeting between these sides was quite entertaining as it ended with a 2-2 draw in San Siro as Atalanta snatched a draw in the 91st minute with a goal.
Atalanta and Milan have had quite even match ups when Atalanta are the home team in the past few years. The past 5 meetings resulted in 2 Atalanta wins, 2 draws and 1 Milan win. Each of the last two resulted in 1-1 draws.
According to bookies at Unibet, Atalanta are the favourites to win this game at 2.02. Milan are underdogs at 3.75 and draw is tipped at 3.40.
Team News
Atalanta: Atalanta are expected to be at full strength as they have no key injuries.
AC Milan: Pepe Reina is a doubt for Milan while Giacomo Bonaventura is out with a long term injury.
Betting Stats
Atalanta are 3rd best at covering total goal overs at Home at 63.6% (7-4).
However, Atalanta are tied 2nd worst best at covering 1st half total goal overs at Home at just 18.2% (2-4-5). Expect more goals in the 2nd half.
Duvan Zapata is Atalanta’s top scorer at Home with 6 goals.
Atalanta average 1.54 bookings per game at Home (17 bookings in 11 games).
Atalanta are tied 5th best at covering Handicaps at Home at 45.5% (5-1-5).
Atlanta are tied 14th best at covering 1st half Handicaps at home at 36.4% (4-7).
AC Milan have the worst covered total goal overs percentage away from home in the Serie A at 18.2% (2-9).
AC Milan have the worst percentage at covering 1st half total goal overs away from home at 0%, yes they are yet to cover a goal over in the 1st half on their travels (0-5-6).
AC Milan average 2.64 bookings per game away from home in the league (29 bookings in 11 games).
Suso is AC Milan’s top scorer away from home with 3 goals. Despite Piatek having the most away goals from Milan’s available players with 7, only 1 came for Milan in his only away appearance for the club.
AC Milan are tied 10th best at covering Handicaps away from home at 45.5% (5-1-5)
AC Milan are tied 11th best at covering 1st half Handicaps away from home at 36.4% (4-2-5).
KICK OFF – 16th February 2019 – 7:30pm UK Time
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