Sweden ATP250 Bastad, is going full speed to last rounds and today we have a interesting match between superb player from Spain David Ferrer and one magic player Dustin Brown from Germany. We all know how good is Ferrer on clay courts, but today its can be very tough , because Dustin Brown is not ordinary player. As we know Dustin could play very good but when he meets very good player, suddenly all his good play disappears.
What will happen today? Its hard to say, we can hope for good match and we have a lot of factors to say it will be good match. Let’s look at statistics in this tournament, Brown have a really good serve, not the trusted one, because sometimes he just doesn’t work, but if we look at first serve in it good, about 70% in. He win a lot of points on first serve to, second serve points winning percentage is not so great, but we saw how Dustin serves on second serve sometimes speed is bigger than 200km/h its amazing, second serve is so big and opponents doesn’t expect it. Return is big weapon today, Brown return is very dangerous, we saw it yesterday versus Bedene Aljaz, first serve or second serve doesn’t matter Brown have a strategy to return, it can be either way return winner or just return, but both ways it very dangerous.
David Ferrer – Is one of the best player on clay court, but this year, maybe in second part of year, he doesn’t play very good, he is struggling , he even struggled in yesterday match versus Hemery, statistics of that match wasn’t good for David, first serve in was pretty low, first serve points won 65% second serve almost same, but in the end he managed to win. One thing helped yesterday was return, it’s was above average, but in the other hand both players played better on opponent serve. Both had a lot of break points.
Game play – David Serve’s not so good, he doesn’t have height like Karlovic or other players, he is only 175cm, but sometimes he can be aggressive on serve, he knows some tricks to serve better and he knows how to serve to make problems for opponent to return, but also Brown is good return player so it can go either way, so we expect good fight on both players serve, if David breaks early there will be still chance to break back for Brown.
In long rallies there will be a advantage for Ferrer, he knows how to play long rallies, but on the short faster rallies Brown must win points because of his power play.
Also Brown have a secret tricks to show in rallies, so it can help him or “kill” him today.
In The End – Brown have bigger serve, unexpected moves, power it will be the key to stay in the match, but David have experience, knowledge, better play on court and he is more likely to hit IN, not OUT like Brown, so we can say one thing or another will help both player’s so we are going for OVER 20.5 Game’s in this match. Best odds Pinnacle 1,75.
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