Burnley vs Manchester United

BPL 2018-19 – Burnley vs Manchester United Match Preview

Massive game for both clubs. Burnley have started the season slow, the midweek fixtures in Europa League have really affected the club to the point where their biggest strength defending has been awful and with only one point from 9 and sitting 18th, Burnley need points. Man Utd are also in desperation for a win, no one needs this win more than manager Jose Mourinho who’s job security is becoming in serious threat and after the meltdown during the press conference after losing 0-3 to Tottenham, you’d have to say this game is an absolute MUST WIN for Jose and United.

Key Points

Burnley have seriously been affected by playing midweek European games and this is the last time they’re playing just 3 days after an intense European game as they’ve been knocked out midweek. Burnley drew 0-0 with Southampton, lost 1-3 to Watford and 4-2 to Fulham in the first 3 games. All 3 games came after a European game. Lack of depth is seriously showing.

In the past 4 games including Europe, Burnley have managed to concede 11 goals which is nearly on average 3 per game. Their biggest strength is clearly not showing so far. Fatigue could be the factor.

This will be Burnley’s 8th game in the past 24 days. They literally play a game each 3 days.

Burnley’s home record in 2018 is 2W 3D 5L in the league. They’ve surprisingly been a better away team.

Man United’s defence has been just as shocking. They’ve conceded 7 goals in 3 games keeping no clean sheets. Mourinho tried rotating and changing the whole back line and it still hasn’t worked. They conceded 3 in back to back games.

So far this season, only Huddersfield and West Ham conceded more goals (9) than Burnley (7) and United (7) in the league. Both of those teams are 19th and 20th.

2 of 3 Burnley games ended with an over 3.5 goals in the league. All 3 Man Utd games had an over 2.5. Very unusual

Ever since Mourinho got appointed by United, his matches against Dyche’s Burnley have usually been unders. 3 of the 4 meetings ended with an under 2.5.

Man Utd have won the previous 2 meetings at Turf Moor against Burnley. 0-1 and 0-2.

Both, Sean Dyche and Mourinho normally like to play defensive football. Although the recent performances by both clubs show that they’re leaky at the back, this may be avoided this time around as both managers will most likely be cautious.

Team News

Burnley: Burnley will be forced to change their line-up this week, With Johann Gudmunsson out with an injury, his expected replacement will be the youngster Dwight McNeil who put in a decent shift against Olympiakos. Otherwise, it’s a healthy Burnley squad and Sean Dyche is expected to keep it pretty much the same as he has throughout the season. We should expect Burnley to sit back as they normally do, sulk up the pressure and then try to hit United on counter attacks or set pieces.

Manchester United: Last week, Mourinho made SIX changes to the United squad, nearly changing the whole backline. Everything looked fine in the first half, however it unravelled in the second half and United got ripped apart. This week, again Jose will be forced to make changes with Phil Jones picking up an injury last week. With Jones out and Lindelof putting in a shocking performance off the bench last week, we may see Eric Bailly be re-inserted back into the United line-up. With the Herrera experiment to play CB failing last week, we should also see Jose change his formation up a bit. Expect United to be on the front foot for this game.

Betting Tips and Predictions

Tough one to call this. Yes, on paper United are better but the turmoil surrounding the club makes it hard to pick them especially with the odds being as low as 1.65, there’s just no value. Our pick is going to be an under 2.5 goals at 1.75. Yes, both of these sides have been leaky at the back but when they meet each other, Dyche and Mourinho will more than likely make this a boring game of football. Neither man likes to play attacking football, especially Dyche whose Burnley almost always play on the back foot, meanwhile Mourinho is also a more of a defensive minded manager. We should be expecting Man United to show better organisation all around after two shocking performances, same with Burnley as they are at Turf Moor. Burnley have been a more of an under side in terms of goals playing at home in general, all 3 european games this season ended with an under 2.5 after 90 mins, last season they only had six home games with an over 2.5. This season their only league game had an over but Watford were on fire that day and we’d like to think as it being a one off. Mourinho’s United are also a more of an under side playing away from home (last season 9 overs 10 unders 2.5). These teams have met 4 times at Turf Moor in the Premier league history and it ended 1-0 0-0 0-2 and 0-1. Clearly not a high scoring fixture this. We could very well see a 0-0 draw here. Both managers are expected to be cautious.

Match Odds (TonyBet)

Burnley Win – 6.00

Draw – 3.85

Manchester United Win – 1.65

KICK OFF – 2nd September 2018 – 4pm UK Time