Power E. Valencia - Bizkaia Bilbao B.

Okay, it seems to be a simple bet here, odds are dropping down on Valencia side and everyone thinks that here should be easy home win. I think a little bit differently...
Firstly, everyone knows about past few months Valencia shape, their winning streaks and how they're good now with Pesic, so I don't need to say something more. I just can add that Valencia stopped improving, they are very good team, but they won't be better later, for ex. after month or at playoffs. Just want to say that Valencia had reached the highest point of its curve to the game, while Bilbao's started rising recently. From mid-level team that didn't enter the Eurocup Top16 Bilbao became more better, like true favorites. Now they are with 4win streak and takes a 5th place in ACB.
Quote before the game: "Veremos cómo reaccionamos tras un partido que nos costó mucho físico, concentración y motivación" - S.Pesic. It means that "We'll see how we react after a hard game that costed us a lot of physical, concentration and motivation" (he was meaning this week Euroleague game).
So the main reason I took this bet is that Power Electronic has less motivation than Bilbao Basket. Bilbao now plays only at ACB, while Valencia in domestic and Europe leagues. They had very hard emotional and physical game against Fenerbahce Ulker that they lost (73-75), than back home ~3000km and going to play Sunday against Bilbao and then, I think Monday go to Piraeus ~2500km, have some practise and play Wednesday one of the most important game this season. Hard week, and now matter how, but team should be fully recovered and very motivated against Olympiacos (1w,1l), because FB Ulker will go through - to top8 (i don't know as 1st or 2nd from group H, but they will go), then Zalgiris Kaunas is ready to take 4th place in group H (think - 0w, 6l), so no worries. OLY & POW - who will go next? For this day situation seems, that Valencia has better chances because of group table. They destroyed Zalgiris, and lost only 2pts at FB Ulker, while Olympiacos lost at home vs. FB in double digits. Also Electronics have better +/- contrast. So the purpose now is: lose as less as possible (or try to win), and than win at home more than were lost away, because every point could cost participating to top8. I'm definitely not saying that Valencia will lose here safely, but the handicap +6,5 on Bilbao side is very juicy. Valencia I think will be more concentrate in next week game, not in this one, because If they lose against Bilbao, they don't fall down in the standings. Maybe I'll also try to take here away money line in small stakes, because Bilbao Basket is banker for me here. Good luck.

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