The 46th edition of Copa America Final is here and we have hosts Brazil taking on the surprise team of the tournament Peru for the title!
Both finalists came from the same group in the group stages and this will be the 2nd time that Brazil and Peru meet in Copa America this year with Brazil winning the group meeting by their biggest margin of win in the tournament 5-0! Peru will clearly have to play better than that if they want to shock the world.
Brazil have been up and down on their way to their final but it seems like they have peaked at the right time. They topped their group over Peru, Venezuela and Bolivia, then beat Paraguay on penalties and beat Argentina 2-0 to reach the Final. Unusually it hasn’t been their attack that has carried them here but their defence as their backline have kept 5 clean sheets in 5 games in this tournament, yes not conceding a single goal yet in this years Copa America!
As for Peru, they have peaked at the right time in this tournament. Not playing their best football in the groups only winning against Bolivia, but by being the best 3rd placed team in the group stages they punched a ticket to the knockouts where they beat 2 really good sides eliminating Uruguay on penalties and then smashing defending champions Chile 3-0 in what was a truly spectacular performance by Peru which earned them their first Final since 1975. Peru have also been solid defensively other than that 5-0 loss to Brazil, they kept 3 clean sheets and conceded just 1 goal in the other games (no goals conceded in the knockouts).
Brazil being the host team could prove to be a huge difference in this Final. Brazil haven’t lost a competitive home game for 5 years now since that trashing by Germany, they have not lost a competitive home game against a South American opposition since 1975 which is an incredible 67 consecutive matches (47W 20D 0L) though ironically their last competitive home loss against a South American team did come against Peru! And Brazil have always won Copa America as the host nation winning on all 4 previous occasion looking to make it 5 out of 5 on their home soil in this competition.
For Brazil this is their 20th Copa America Final ever, they do have a negative win % when it comes to Copa America finals as they won 8 of the previous 19 (42.1%) losing 11 of those Finals. Meanwhile for Peru this is just their 3rd ever Copa America Final but they have won both of their previous Finals in 1939 and 1975.
Looking at overall H2H, Brazil have dominated Peru they have beaten them 23 times in 35 competitive H2H matches only losing 3 of them though the most recent defeat was Peru knocking Brazil out of the 2016 Copa America. In this decade they have faced off 5 times with Brazil winning 4 of those games with the lone defeat coming as mentioned in 2016 Copa America. Brazil destroyed Peru 3-0 and 5-0 at home in the meetings in Brazil during the 2010s.
In form player to watch for Brazil has to be Roberto Firmino. He has the most goal contributions in the tournament he’s the top tied goal scorer and assist man overall in this years Copa America so far with 2 goals and 3 assists so expect him to have a big game.
As for Peru the man to watch is none other than Paolo Guerreiro. He is their top scorer of all time and has had a decent tournament here with 2 goals tied for teams highest goal scorer in this year Copa America and he’s coming off a game where he scored against Chile. Their greatest ever goal scorer in the countries biggest game in over 40 years is surely the man to watch here.
Brazil are HUGE favourites to win this match according to bookies offered to win at 1.28 whereas Peru to win is 11.50 with Draw offered at 5.50. Brazil to lift the trophy is 1.15 while Peru are 5.50. It should be no surprise that Brazil are such favourites being the host team with so much talent on show and just the fact that Brazil have a far superior team on paper and have already shown it against Peru earlier in the tournament. The odds are based on Unibet.
Team News
Brazil: Willian is out while Fernandinho and Richarlison are doubtful, however Filipe Luis could return.
Peru: Veteran Jefferson Farfan will be out for Peru who otherwise should be able to field their strongest side.
Betting Stats (Over/Void/Under, Win/Void/Loss Format)
Brazil have covered 40% of their total goal overs in the competition so far (2-1-2).
Brazil have covered 40% of their total 1st half goal overs in the competition so far (2-0-3).
Brazil average 1.8 bookings per game in the competition (9 bookings in 5 games).
Brazil have covered 60% of their Handicaps in the competition so far (3-0-2).
Brazil have covered 40% of their 1st half Handicaps in the competition so far (2-0-3).
Peru have covered 60% of their total goal overs in the competition so far (3-0-2).
Peru have covered 60% of their total 1st half goal overs in the competition so far (3-0-2).
Peru average 1.8 bookings per game in the competition (9 bookings in 5 games).
Peru have covered 60% of their Handicaps in the competition so far (3-0-2).
Peru have covered 40% of their Handicaps in the competition so far (2-0-3).
KICK OFF – 7th July 2019 – 9pm UK Time
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